Accrington Stanley - who


are they? Making Milk Matter By Jane Brooks


As I write this towards the end of February the full horror of the recent weather has forced many arable farmers to switch to spring drilling, current estimates are that the area of winter wheat for autumn 2020 harvest is down by 15%. When DEFRA’s final UK wheat area, yield and production estimates


for 2019 were published in December, the crop was 16.225 million tonnes, the largest UK crop since 2015 and 2.67 million tonnes up on the 2018 harvest. This should have led to an exportable surplus of approximately 2.9


million tonnes, although DEFRA estimate 900,000 tonnes were probably exported by the end of 2019. Around 2 million tonnes remain for export or to roll over for the 2020 season. The UK market may need this roll over to meet home demand. In some areas straw shortages are biting as livestock is housed


for longer than usual, and ewes brought in early for lambing. Additional housing is not without extra feed costs, which are being felt across the livestock industry. However, we’re in the season of shows and technical events, which


as it’s nigh on impossible to get onto the fields tend to attract a lot of farmer support. I recently attended the Dairy-Tech event at Stoneleigh Park in Warwickshire to see what current thinking was on the future of dairying in the UK. Declining milk sales, the popularity of dairy-free diets, together with


farmers facing the loss of direct payments have combined to create an air of uncertainty within the UK Dairy Industry. For many milk producers, market price no longer covers the cost of production. In a Dairy-Tech briefing, farm business consultants Andersons


predicted barely break-even production profits in 2020/21 owing to weak milk prices and increasing costs, with any profit purely due to support payments, which under the Government’s agricultural policy reduces from 2021. Using their Friesian Farm model to illustrate their findings Andersons


calculated that in 2020/2021 an average 200-cow 130-hectare dairy unit would break even as milk prices dropped by 2.9% and overheads increased. Listening to Oliver Hall, Andersons senior farm business consultant,


at the event as he advised dairy farmers to ask themselves where they wanted to be in five years’ time, made me think about what my father must have gone through when he gave up dairying in the early 1970’s. At the time he was running about 100 Friesian milkers and made the decision to leave the industry but remain farming, upping sheep numbers and going into poultry. Unfortunately today’s farmers don’t face a similar choice as many


have significant borrowings and equally as many have invested heavily in their dairy business infrastructure.


PAGE 16 MARCH/APRIL 2020 FEED COMPOUNDER


Oliver pointed out that prices are likely to be in the range of 25-29ppl


over the next few years, so the question is, can dairy farmers remain profitable at these levels, particularly as the Basic Payment Scheme is being replaced? Many farmers face an uncertain future and discussions about long-


term strategies, diversification and even leaving the industry are likely to be taking place within many agricultural businesses. Over the next decade the dairy industry is facing profound change


and while producers are being advised to start planning for the withdrawal of subsidy it is the pattern of consumer demand for their products that also needs addressing. The troubles are compounded by the fact that milk just isn’t the


housewife’s essential it once was. In short, milk is out of fashion and has a serious PR problem. Highly advertised and generally more costly substitutes such as


almond and soya milk are gaining in popularity as many consumers move away from cows’ milk. Some change for ethical or perceived environmental reasons, which are personal choices, although non-dairy milks can also have an environmental impact. These alternatives to standard cow’s milk are often promoted as a


healthier alternative to traditional milk, which isn’t necessarily true. Some lack the calcium found in dairy products or have added sugar. Over the years there have been some fabulous advertising


campaigns such as the Milk Marketing Board’s 1980s, ‘Accrington Stanley, who are they’ TV ad featuring a young Liverpool fan telling his friend that according to his footballing hero Ian Rush, if he didn’t drink milk he’d only be good enough to play for Accrington Stanley. More recently a successful US campaign took place just before the


2018 Winter Olympics, where TV commercials promoted milk with the help of Olympians. Nine out of 10 US Olympian athletes drank milk as children. “Built, not born” was the theme: the message, great athletes need strong bodies to get the best performance and drinking milk was a factor in their success. How do both ads tie in to dairy? Children are great imitators; if their


heroes drink milk it’s likely they will too. Trying to influence trends is incredibly difficult, but when it comes


to the dairy industry farmers may find that they are faced with a simple choice between producing less or finding a new market. Currently the eyes of the world are on China and the international


spread of coronavirus, which is reaching in the region of 80,000 cases and a death toll in excess of 2,300 lives, the majority of which are in Mainland China. Efforts to contain the global epidemic have wreaked havoc on


supply-chains, as the flow of goods out of China is severely restricted due to factory closures. Some sectors of industry that are heavily dependent on China may face acute shortages. Then there is demand. China’s thirst for milk has seen huge growth


in recent years, however trade uncertainty has hit international milk prices particularly for major milk producers like New Zealand, the US and the EU, all exporters of dairy products to China. The concern is that if China reduces its dairy imports, those products will flood the market. With several European economies on the verge of recession, as


well as counting the human cost, businesses need to brace themselves to absorb the financial impact of coronavirus.


Comment section is sponsored by Compound Feed Engineering Ltd www.cfegroup.com


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