TIMBER
NEW ANALYSIS TOOL HELPS ASSESS PRICE CHANGES
TDUK has launched a new Structural Timber Price Index tool to help the industry assess market changes as timber prices begin to stabilise after a challenging few years.
A
new Structural Timber Price Index tool has been added to TDUK’s website to help the construction industry assess and analyse changes
in the UK timber market.
The Structural Price Index Tool, which is available free for public use, displays the monthly price of structural timber stretching back to 2018, giving users the ability to compare today’s timber prices to those seen five years ago.
The figures seen in 2018 were pre-Brexit, pre-Covid and pre-War in Ukraine, making them arguably the most recent ‘normal’ year the industry has experienced and, therefore, a sensible point for comparison.
Nick Boulton, TDUK’s Head of Technical and Trade Policy, explains: “The TDUK Structural Timber Price Index is a powerful new tool for the construction industry to understand the state of the timber market in the UK. The price of structural timber has been on a rollercoaster over the past three years.
“Timber is a globally traded commodity and the UK is a major importer of structural timbers, so large geopolitical events can ripple across the trade. The abnormal structural timber prices we have seen over the past three years reflect the abnormal market we have all lived through.
“However, the three most recent months shown on the index – from November 2022 to January 2023 – are among the most stable price periods we’ve seen since 2019 – which likely reflects the balance between supply, demand, and price.
“While no one can predict the future, the commodity market for structural timbers has historically been a steady and dependable one. We will be watching the market carefully to see whether this trend will be re-established.” This latest tool is part of TDUK’s ongoing
30
Above: TDUK’s Structural Timber Price Index Tool will help
merchants navigate fluctuating
materials prices.
Right: Timber imports were 8.7% lower at the start of 2023 than they were in January 2022.
mission to provide comprehensive market data to help the timber supply chain navigate the changing economic climate.
Timber imports echo price index
The latest timber import figures also support suggestions that normality may be returning to the market after a challenging few years. Softwood imports totalled 426,000m3 in January 2023 due to volume increases from Sweden, Finland and the Republic of Ireland. Despite these increases, however, overall timber import volumes were 8.7% lower than in January 2022. This is the result of significant declines in panel product imports, with plywood and particleboard down 42% and 18% respectively. Hardwood imports also dropped by 37% following a record 2022.
Boulton believes these falling volumes are due to unusually high imports in January 2022 and the resultant high stock levels within the UK market, rather than being a sign of downward market trends.
Only hardwoods saw growth in 2022, with volumes up 7% on the year before. Hardwood imports totalled 576,000m3 at a value of £433 million, establishing 2022 as the best year for hardwood imports by the UK this century.
He adds: “2021 was a record year for timber imports in the UK but it was clear from Q2 onwards that this was unlikely to be emulated in 2022. Demand for timber slowed last year from the dizzying heights of 2021, with high inflation and economic volatility harming consumer confidence in key sectors like retail and RM&I. Political instability in Q3 2022 also undermined confidence in the housing market and reduced housing starts and timber demand. “Supplies of timber on the ground remained healthy, reducing the need for further imports. Despite a tricky 2022 there is still room for optimism, with members reporting good demand in early 2023.
“The economic outlook has also improved, with the CPA predicting just a shallow UK recession this year and growth heading into Q3/4.
“Overall, the 2022 stats show that despite recent import volatility, timber is heading in the right direction long-term, with an upward trend seen since 2009. This is set to continue as the UK Government looks to decarbonise the built environment using timber.”
The Structural Timber Price Index, along with many other timber statistics, is online at
timberdevelopment.uk/supply/market- data BMJ
www.buildersmerchantsjournal.net June 2023
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