talking trade talking trade
Viewpoint from Will Jones, Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA)
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Exciting Positives and Significant Challenges Recovery Is On the Horizon
non-essential shops open and ‘indoors’ an option once again for bars and restaurants, the overall economic picture is a mix of exciting positives and significant challenges for the housewares sector.
hile some of the latest economic
New findings from the latest GB TGI monthly
Viewpoint from Will Jones, Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA)
Recovery Is On the Horizon W
hile we are ‘so far; so good’ on the ‘roadmap’ with
hile some of the latest economic
release for May reveal how consumers feel about shopping in-store again post-pandemic and what they are looking forward to buying at the shops. Data captured in March this year – shortly before stores re-opened – reveals 60% of adults in Britain (over 32 million people) agree ‘I look forward to going back and shopping in- store after the pandemic’. While the biggest winners from this desire – after a truly dire fifteen months – look set, unsurprisingly, to be clothes and shoes, things for the home are cited
statistics show some evidence of being slightly skewed by buying decisions being made ahead of BREXIT, in general the figures show a positive direction as the nation recovers from the impact of the first Covid- 19 lockdown. With retail volumes in growth for the sixth consecutive month and October 2020 GDP now 23.4% higher than its April 2020 low (albeit still 7.9% below February
statistics show some evidence of being slightly skewed by buying decisions being made ahead of BREXIT, in general the figures show a positive direction as the nation recovers from the impact of the first Covid- 19 lockdown. With retail volumes in growth for the sixth consecutive month and October 2020 GDP now 23.4% higher than its April 2020 low (albeit still 7.9% below February
2020), there are some positive indicators. Admittedly some of these measures precede the latest pandemic restrictions. We can already see November retail sales volumes decreasing by -3.8% compared to October because of Lockdown 2 and anecdotal evidence is suggesting that 2021 may well get off to a tough start due to the current situation. The other salutary output of the current statistics is that the number of payroll employees has fallen by 819,000 since February 2020. With overall sales remaining above their pre-pandemic levels, however, there is still a positive economic direction. But the key point for the housewares sector
It is horribly ironic therefore that just as demand is soaring, many suppliers are having issues with stock levels, with many reasons for
Retail Sales Retail sales volumes grew sharply in April with a monthly increase of 9.2%, reflecting the effect of the easing of restrictions including the re-opening of all non-essential retail from 12 April in England and Wales and from 26 April in Scotland. Retail sales volumes were 10.6% higher than February 2020, before the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Non-food stores provided the largest contribution to volumes up by 25.3% reflecting many closed stores all month last year.
recovery and put strain on ‘non-essential’ retailers but demand looks set to remain strong for home- related products through online channels and ‘essential’ shops.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) UK GDP is estimated to have grown by 2.1% in March, the fastest monthly growth since August 2020. March’s GDP is 5.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, and 1.1% below the initial recovery peak in October 2020. Output in the production sector grew by 1.8% in March, as manufacturing grew for a second consecutive month, at 2.1%. The construction sector grew by 5.8% in March, driven by growth in both new work and repair and maintenance.
recovery and put strain on ‘non-essential’ retailers but demand looks set to remain strong for home- related products through online channels and ‘essential’ shops.
The last months of 2020 saw the UK continue to recover from the Covid-19 first lockdown, with retail volumes growing for six consecutive months. All statistics linked to spending on the home have been resilient, with average UK house prices achieving a new record high in October of £245,000 and the most mortgage approvals in a month since September 2007. The January lockdown will stifle the wider
The last months of 2020 saw the UK continue to recover from the Covid-19 first lockdown, with retail volumes growing for six consecutive months. All statistics linked to spending on the home have been resilient, with average UK house prices achieving a new record high in October of £245,000 and the most mortgage approvals in a month since September 2007. The January lockdown will stifle the wider
November, the highest level since August 2007 and well above market expectations of 82,500. The recent strength in approvals has almost fully offset the significant weakness earlier in the year.
across global supply chains. Strong demand for manufacturing inputs, higher transport bills and a spike in commodity prices resulted in the fastest increase in overall purchasing costs since this index began in January 1992.
November, the highest level since August 2007 and well above market expectations of 82,500. The recent strength in approvals has almost fully offset the significant weakness earlier in the year.
Purchasing Managers Index The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI jumped to 66.1 in May of 2021 from 60.9 in April. There was record growth in factory activity amid loosening coronavirus restrictions. Steep increases in output, new orders and employment, alongside a return to growth for the stocks of purchases component drove the reading to record levels. Manufacturers noted a sharp improvement in demand from the US and China, alongside an easing in Brexit-related difficulties with exporting to EU clients. Severe delays continued
Mortgage Approvals The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in the UK increased to 105,000 in
May/June 2021
HW-JAN21-PG07.indd 7
Mortgage Approvals The number of mortgage approvals for house purchases in the UK increased to 105,000 in
Retail Sales In November, retail sales volumes decreased by -3.8% when compared with October as many stores ceased trading following government guidance during the pandemic. Despite the monthly fall, overall sales remain above their pre-pandemic levels. The year-on-year growth rate in the volume of retail sales increased by 2.4%, with businesses suggesting that consumers had brought forward Christmas spending.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP estimates for October 2020 are subject to more uncertainty than usual as a result of the challenges we faced estimating GDP in the current conditions. October 2020 GDP is now 23.4% higher than its April 2020 low. However, it remains 7.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic. January/February 2021
Retail Sales In November, retail sales volumes decreased by -3.8% when compared with October as many stores ceased trading following government guidance during the pandemic. Despite the monthly fall, overall sales remain above their pre-pandemic levels. The year-on-year growth rate in the volume of retail sales increased by 2.4%, with businesses suggesting that consumers had brought forward Christmas spending.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) GDP estimates for October 2020 are subject to more uncertainty than usual as a result of the challenges we faced estimating GDP in the current conditions. October 2020 GDP is now 23.4% higher than its April 2020 low. However, it remains 7.9% below the levels seen in February 2020, before the full impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Construction Output Monthly construction output grew by 5.8% in March 2021 because of growth in both new work (6.7%) and repair and maintenance (4.4%). Construction output in March 2021 was 2.4% (£334 million) above the February 2020 pre-pandemic level; repair and maintenance work was 7.7% (£377 million) above this level while new work was 0.5% (£44 million) below.
Purchasing Managers Index Purchasing Managers Index
Mortgage Approvals The number of mortgage approvals for house purchase in the UK decreased to 82,740 in March, from 87,390 in the previous month. The number of approvals, which is an indicator for future lending, was also down from a recent peak of 103,100 in November, but remained relatively strong compared to February 2020 (73,000).
UK House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 10.2% over the year to March 2021, up from 9.2% in February 2021; this is the highest annual growth rate the UK has seen since August 2007. Average house prices increased over the year in England to £275,000 (10.2%), in Wales to £185,000 (11.0%), in Scotland to £167,000 (10.6%) and in Northern Ireland to £149,000 (6.0%).
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.3 in December from 55.6 in November. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in factory activity since November 2017. New orders expanded at the fastest pace since August, supported by a temporary boost to purchasing ahead of the Brexit deadline, while stocks of purchases were accumulated to the greatest extent since April 2019.
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HousewaresLive.net •
HousewaresLive.net
UK House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 5.4% over the year to October 2020, up from 4.3% in September, to stand at a record high of £245,000; this is the highest annual growth rate the UK has seen since October 2016. Average house prices increased over the year in England to £262,000 (5.4%), Wales to £176,000 (5.8%), Scotland to £163,000 (6.0%) and Northern Ireland to £143,000 (2.4%).
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI increased to 57.3 in December from 55.6 in November. The reading pointed to the strongest expansion in factory activity since November 2017. New orders expanded at the fastest pace since August, supported by a temporary boost to purchasing ahead of the Brexit deadline, while stocks of purchases were accumulated to the greatest extent since April 2019.
Construction Output Construction output grew by 1.0% in the month- on-month all work series in October, because of increases in both new work (0.3%) and repair and maintenance (2.3%). The level of construction output in October was 6.4% below February 2020, with only infrastructure having recovered above this pre-lockdown level of output.
Construction Output Construction output grew by 1.0% in the month- on-month all work series in October, because of increases in both new work (0.3%) and repair and maintenance (2.3%). The level of construction output in October was 6.4% below February 2020, with only infrastructure having recovered above this pre-lockdown level of output.
by 26% and housewares specifically by 22%. The easing of restrictions has indeed led to the fact that sales volumes overall are 10.6% higher than they were prior to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with non-food stores providing the largest contribution with volumes up by 25.3%, reflecting the many closed stores last year. The vastly increased interest in all things home and garden continues to boost the sector with signs that ongoing home working and the many genuine new entrants to the market who discovered or rediscovered their homemaking skills will combine to keep this positive trend going. In addition, housewares, small electricals, DIY and garden all benefit from the strong house move numbers and price growth, as well as good, albeit slowing, forward looking mortgage approvals.
2020), there are some positive indicators. Admittedly some of these measures precede the latest pandemic restrictions. We can already see November retail sales volumes decreasing by -3.8% compared to October because of Lockdown 2 and anecdotal evidence is suggesting that 2021 may well get off to a tough start due to the current situation. The other salutary output of the current statistics is that the number of payroll employees has fallen by 819,000 since February 2020. With overall sales remaining above their pre-pandemic levels, however, there is still a positive economic direction. But the key point for the housewares sector
talking trade
Viewpoint from Will Jones, Chief Operating Officer of the British Home Enhancement Trade Association (BHETA)
is just how much purchasing linked to the home is standing up to all pressures. House prices are up to record levels, mortgage approvals are up – to the highest level since September 2007! While the January lockdown will of course be a challenge, online channels and shops deemed essential will continue to contribute massively to positive figures. In other words, we are seeing recovery, but
we are also seeing significant change in the economic structure we were used to before the pandemic – and the imperative is to adapt. For further information, visit
www.bheta.co.uk or contact the BHETA Member Services Team on u07946 078566
For further information, visit u
www.bheta.co.uk or contact the BHETA Member Services Team on u 0121 237 1130
Consumer Price Index The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) rose by 1.6% in the 12 months to April 2021, up from 1.0% growth to March. The largest upward contributions to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate came from housing and household services (0.57 percentage points), and transport (0.56 percentage points). Rising household utility, clothing, and motor fuel prices made the largest upward contributions to CPIH growth in April 2021; these were partially offset by a large downward contribution from recreation and culture.
Consumer Price Index Early estimates for November suggest that there is a slight drop over the month in the number of payroll employees in the UK. Since February 2020, the number of payroll employees has fallen by 819,000; however, the larger falls were seen at the start of the pandemic. The number of redundancies reached a record high in August to October although the weekly data show that while the level remains high there was a slight decrease in October.
Reuters FX Analysis The pound strengthened against the Dollar in recent months to $1.36 whilst the Euro rate has remained broadly flat around 1.10 Euro. 1 GBP = 1.10 EUR 1 GBP = 1.36 USD 7 Jan
Reuters FX Analysis Sterling closed on 17 May at $1.42, its highest level since the referendum was announced in 2016. Sterling closed at Euro 1.15 broadly unchanged from the 2021 average. 1 GBP = 1.15 EUR 1 GBP = 1.42 USD 17 May
Reuters FX Analysis The pound strengthened against the Dollar in recent months to $1.36 whilst the Euro rate has remained broadly flat around 1.10 Euro. 1 GBP = 1.10 EUR 1 GBP = 1.36 USD 7 Jan
UK House Price Index UK average house prices increased by 5.4% over the year to October 2020, up from 4.3% in September, to stand at a record high of £245,000; this is the highest annual growth rate the UK has seen since October 2016. Average house prices increased over the year in England to £262,000 (5.4%), Wales to £176,000 (5.8%), Scotland to £163,000 (6.0%) and Northern Ireland to £143,000 (2.4%).
Labour Market The latest figures suggest that the jobs market has been broadly stable in recent months, with some early signs of recovery. The number of payroll employees has increased for the fifth consecutive month but remains 772,000 below pre-coronavirus levels.
Commodity prices Commodity prices continue to rise sharply: year to date, the price of crude oil is up 31%, timber up 67%, steel up 20% and Lithium up 91%. (Source: Trading Economics)
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twitter.com/Housewaresnews
Labour Market The UK employment rate in the three months to September was estimated at 75.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The UK unemployment rate in the three months to September was estimated at 4.8%, 0.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
Commodity prices Commodity prices rose in October, with energy prices rising 0.5% and non-energy commodities rising 1.5%. Food commodities rose sharply, led by oils and meals (6.9%) and grains (3.4%). Precious metals fell 1.9% while base metals rose 1.3%.
Commodity prices Commodity prices rose in October, with energy prices rising 0.5% and non-energy commodities rising 1.5%. Food commodities rose sharply, led by oils and meals (6.9%) and grains (3.4%). Precious metals fell 1.9% while base metals rose 1.3%.
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Labour Market The UK employment rate in the three months to September was estimated at 75.3%, 0.8 percentage points lower than a year earlier and 0.6 percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The UK unemployment rate in the three months to September was estimated at 4.8%, 0.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous quarter.
Consumer Price Index Early estimates for November suggest that there is a slight drop over the month in the number of payroll employees in the UK. Since February 2020, the number of payroll employees has fallen by 819,000; however, the larger falls were seen at the start of the pandemic. The number of redundancies reached a record high in August to October although the weekly data show that while the level remains high there was a slight decrease in October.
this completely outside their control. While the BREXIT-related challenges are showing signs of easing, severe delays continue across global logistics, higher transport bills and a spike in commodity prices conspire to challenge even the best organised supply chains. No wonder the Purchase Managers Index is showing the fastest increase in overall purchasing costs since it began in January 1992. BHETA continues to offer members the latest facts and figures, proactive advice on challenges such as freight costs and packaging legislation and networking with key retailers such as Ocado, Blue Diamond and Mano Mano, where new routes to market can be found. The positives are incredibly positive; and the challenges are real. It is all about being alert, fleet of foot and adaptive to change.
is just how much purchasing linked to the home is standing up to all pressures. House prices are up to record levels, mortgage approvals are up – to the highest level since September 2007! While the January lockdown will of course be a challenge, online channels and shops deemed essential will continue to contribute massively to positive figures. In other words, we are seeing recovery, but
we are also seeing significant change in the economic structure we were used to before the pandemic – and the imperative is to adapt. For further information, visit
www.bheta.co.uk or contact the BHETA Member Services Team on u07946 078566
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