Market Review
ecsn/afdec releases 2018 forecast for UK & Ireland electronic components market
The Forecast released by the manufacturers’ authorised distributor (afdec) group within the Electronic Components Supply Network (ecsn) predicts that the UK & Ireland electronic component market will grow in the range 6.5 per cent-to-10.5 per cent in 2018, achieving a mid-point of 8.5 per cent. Compiled from individual returns from the association’s member companies the Forecast further revealed that the market is likely to have grown by 17 per cent in 2017, and distribution's share of the TAM (Total Available Market) in the UK will have grown to over 40 per cent, encouraging the consensus opinion that the recovery in the manufacturing sector of the economy will remain strong and is likely to outperform the macroeconomic environment
made at this time last year." The ‘Book to Bill’ ratio remained above unity throughout 2017 although in recent months it has softened a little, indicating that the rate of growth will slow as we enter 2018, but the association is forecasting a further five quarters of growth at least. “We are seeing a period of sustained
‘quarter-on-same-quarter-the-previous- year’ growth,” observed Dunford, “something we haven’t seen since the 1990s, and the growth we’ve experienced over the last six quarters is the longest period of sustained growth since 2000.” The growth period started in early 2016 but really accelerated in the last quarter, which ecsn initially put down to the change in market prices due to its measurement of the market in UK pounds: “It is now clear that this is only one of a number of factors behind the upswing, among which the upturn in the global electronics markets predominates,” Dunford continued. “The seed change in electronics markets has enabled more competitive pricing of manufactured goods in export markets and UK companies have been able to fully participate in that change.” As electronic systems continue to expand into ever more areas of daily life global investment into these areas has rapidly increased: “UK companies find themselves in an ideal position to capitalise on the opportunities presented, most of which are within the market sector served by authorised distributors,” Dunford continued. “Global growth is causing lengthening of lead times on some product lines but
Adam Fletcher
manufacturers are expanding production, although perhaps with more caution than we have seen in the past. It is clear that customers who work in close co-operation with authorised distributors are able to meet their production requirements even although overall availability is more restricted.”
Aubrey Dunford A
ubrey Dunford, ecsn Market Analyst commenced his presentation of the association's
2018 Forecast by announcing that the UK/Ireland electronic components market results for the current year (2017) will have exceeded the higher end of the range of guidance the association provided in December last year. According to Dunford, the market grew strongly throughout 2017: "Every quarter of this year saw sales exceed the upper point of afdec guidance,” Dunford said. “2017 is likely to end showing annual growth of around 17 per cent in the UK Distribution Market, which compares very favourably with the upper prediction of 4.3 per cent we
26 December 2017/January 2018 Components in Electronics
www.cieonline.co.uk
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