Transport & logistics Moving mountains
Russia is beginning to test the resolve of the West – particularly Nato. The alliance’s ability to respond politically and economically is in no doubt, but its ability to engage militarily en masse across Europe could be, as infrastructure challenges and an alleged lack of leadership threaten to hinder it. Andrew Tunnicliffe speaks with independent defence expert Dr James Bosbotinis, and Glen Grant, defence and security expert at the Baltic Security Foundation, to find out more.
s Russia’s bloody invasion against Ukraine drags on into another winter, its tactics have become increasingly disjointed, even scattergun, seemingly with the sole aim of breaking Ukraine’s spirit. Russia has been accused of targeting Ukrainian civilians by starving them of power, heat and a sense of security by targeting non-military infrastructure. It’s a level of violence the likes of which Europe hasn’t seen since the mid-1990s during the Bosnian genocide. It’s also a wake-up call to the continent, and the military and political leaders entrusted to protect it. Collectively, we’re realising that even in this modern world, we may soon have to face reality and concede that the end of the Cold War might have been declared too early. “In terms of the European security environment, the Russian threat has evolved significantly,” says Dr James Bosbotinis, an independent specialist in defence and international affairs.
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“[Russia] sought, through its invasion of Ukraine, to reconstitute the Russian empire, encompassing Ukraine and Belarus; and I believe would then have sought to challenge Nato in eastern Europe at some point later this decade, or in the 2030s,” he continues. It’s a chilling summary – and one that we could still see happen. Bosbotinis says that although Russia’s objectives seem some way off, its ambitions remain, and it will likely continue to pursue them unless there is a profound change in the country. The implications for Europe’s security are substantial. Although Russia can’t launch a large-scale cross-border incursion beyond Ukraine just yet, there is an increasing potential for a diminished Russia to conduct “destabilising, damaging actions”, warns Bosbotinis. “A weak Russia may be tempted to act in a manner akin to North Korea, with dangerous provocations to test Western resolve and attempt to undermine support for Ukraine.”
Is Nato ready?
In June 2022, the Nato Summit in Madrid gave leaders an opportunity to discuss the challenges and threats the alliance faces and, unsurprisingly, Russia was front and centre. The outcome was unequivocal – members
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Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
US Department of Defense
US Department of Defense
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