CBRN
sides. “The Russians have claimed that the Ukrainian army has shelled it, and Ukraine and the West have claimed that the Russians have shelled their own troops, and there’s a potential for disaster there,” says de Bretton-Gordon, before voicing his main fear: “I think Zaporizhzhia could be Putin’s euphemism for a dirty bomb.” While Ukraine’s nuclear power plants have been constructed to withstand missile strikes, they were never designed to be attacked directly. Their cooling systems are the plants’ greatest vulnerability and, if attacked, could create fires or explosions that would contaminate the local area – and perhaps much further than that. While some might hold scepticism that Putin would risk the ensuing contamination spreading into Russian territory and affecting its people, it’s worth noting that meteorological conditions would most likely lead to any contamination being spread west into Europe rather than over to Russia, as it did after the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 – as any farmer in north Wales could tell you.
€500m
The amount of in-kind assistance provided to Ukraine by 26 EU member states under the EUCPM.
European Commission 42
A wounded bear Putin’s restraint in his use of CBRN weapons makes it clear that he did not expect to still be fighting this war as 2022 comes to a close. Worse still, he couldn’t have expected to have lost tens of thousands of troops – with some US estimates coming to 100,000 military casualties on both sides of the war – and thousands of tanks and armoured vehicles. “Conventionally, Russia is a spent force. It would be no match for even a small Nato country,” says de Bretton-Gordon. “I don’t think anyone realistically thinks the Russians can win this war conventionally – so, as the stakes mount up, it becomes more dangerous.” With Russia facing the very real possibility that its forces will be pushed back out of the Donbas region in the coming months, and potentially Crimea as well, the chances of Putin turning to CBRN weaponry as a desperate ploy to turn the war around grow continually higher. In Syria, de Bretton- Gordon saw first-hand how weapons like chlorine barrel bombs could break down in days defences that had withstood years of conventional attacks. With this in mind, de Bretton-Gordon has been using his experience running civilian CBRN training in Syria to do the same for Ukraine, and has worked on a number of apps to help people prepare for a CBRN attack. “As the war grinds on, there is more of a concern that the Russians might turn to CBRN and therefore there is more work being done on how to best protect the population,” he notes. Antonella Cavallo, rescEU CBRN technical lead at the European Commission, is one of the people carrying out this vital work. As part of the European Commission’s department for Civil Protection and
Humanitarian Aid Operations, the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) is working to support the provision of CBRN assistance to Ukraine, mobilising vital equipment to aid civilian protection in this area. All of the assistance being provided through the EU Civil Protection Mechanism (EUCPM) is intended purely for civil protection purposes. It does not deal with the delivery of weapons, munitions or artillery whatsoever. Under the EUCPM, the ERCC has mobilised CBRN assistance from three different sources. Firstly, 26 member states have donated in-kind CBRN assistance to Ukraine, which is then transported to Ukraine under the EUCPM via three EU logistic hubs in Poland, Slovakia and Romania. This includes a wide variety of medical countermeasures and critical care equipment, along with a massive amount of both general and specialised personal protective equipment (PPE). Altogether, the EUCPM has overseen almost €500m-worth of in-kind assistance provided to Ukraine – not only for CBRN, but also for agriculture, medical, energy, shelters, and more. Then there are the mobilised rescEU reserves. In the CBRN area, these have included antidotes, different types of therapeutics and protection equipment, which includes suits but also more specialist protective gear such as decontamination equipment, reagents, pressure sprayers, chemical detectors, and so on. CBRN support from rescEU alone comes to about €40m-worth of equipment. Finally, private sector donations have contributed another €1.5m of therapeutics and equipment, transported by the EUCPM. “All of this has made the EU the largest donor in nuclear safety,” Cavallo notes. “Overall, the EU has actually donated around €50m so far – and more procurement is ongoing, and more donations are on their way.”
Beyond this, the EUCPM has been working to ensure cooperation and interoperability across the EU, helping to build CBRN resilience – vital work, as de Bretton-Gordon noted earlier, because any CBRN activity in Ukraine will inevitably have its effects felt throughout Europe. At the same time, over 1,600 Ukrainian patients have been evacuated to safe areas in neighbouring states or EU member states under the EUCPM to receive medical attention. “Against the horror of the war, we have had an unprecedented number of member states and participating states that have provided support to Ukraine under the EUCPM,” says Cavallo, also praising the cooperation between the EUCPM and civil protection authorities in member and participating nations. Should Russia attempt to use its CBRN capabilities to turn the tide of the war, this work could mean the difference between life and death for many Ukrainian people. The only question that remains, then, is whether Putin will become desperate enough to turn to this solution. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
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