actions short of actual combat”. This is in large part because Palm believes that Nato as a military alliance is a sufficient deterrent that Moscow will not risk provoking a direct confrontation with any of its members – rather, it is seeking to deter potential new members from joining the fold. Yet, according to Palm, that will not happen either. “Ukraine is not a member of Nato. But they want to share our values, our principles and our worldview. We will therefore continue to provide it with as much support as possible,” Palm says.
The M142 Himars in action during Nato exercises in Latvia in 2017.
imperial power, Russia dominated its smaller neighbour from the days of Tsar Peter the Great, and then later again under the Communists, who had cut a deal with Nazi Germany to take over Estonia as part of the infamous Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. This has had a lasting impact on not only Estonia’s defence policy, but also in how it views alliance-building. “Our national trauma was in 1939,” Palm explains.
Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, Estonian Defence Forces
“We surrendered to the Soviet Union without firing a single shot, thinking it would be less painful if we gave up. From my personal perspective, it was the wrong decision – we lost our independence and our people. Now, though, ‘never alone again’ is a slogan that is ingrained in Estonians and is deeply rooted in all decisions we have made in the last 30 years.”
All for one, one for all 1 millon
The number of active personnel in the armed
forces of the Russian Federation, as of 2021.
International Institute for Strategic Studies
10
Along with other Baltic states such as Lithuania, and Scandinavian nations like Norway and soon-to-be Nato ally Finland, Estonia is something of a forward defence outpost for Nato – and they are under no illusions that Russia is still a significant threat. “We have a direct contact line with Russia,” Palm explains, stressing that Russia is “definitely not a ten-foot tall giant, but equally it is not a [dwarf]. Its armed forces are still very capable of taking action.” Part of Estonia’s defence plans, therefore, rely on coordinating with its allies and also using its natural terrain and climate to its advantage. Perhaps hearkening back to Finland’s astonishing defence of its territory against the encroaching Soviet Union in 1939’s short-lived Winter War, the Estonian general spoke about how geography would be used to their advantage in case of Russian aggression. “When you look at our environment and the climactic conditions from Finland to Estonia, and beyond, these are the most painful conditions for the Russian military to operate in,” Palm explains. “But we don’t expect a situation where we are confronting Russia in face-to-face battle.” Instead, Palm anticipates his nation to be “on the frontline of info operations, cyber warfare, and
But this does not mean that Estonian commander believes that Nato should neglect its hard power capabilities. “Unfortunately, we have seen Western militaries get smaller and smaller in the past 10–15 years. For example, the British army is miniscule compared with what it used to be,” Palm explains, lamenting how crucial armoured platform numbers are also going down due to the sheer economic expense – something he is at pains to indicate his small country simply cannot afford in large numbers. They are therefore looking at further cooperation with neighbouring allies, including through the development of man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) such as the Piorun system – designed and manufactured by Poland – that aims to provide the vital capability at a cheaper unit price. Estonia is also looking to harden its defences with the acquisition of Himars for its own forces – a piece of equipment no Russian logistics officer would be happy to be dealing with, if the currently unfolding debacle in Ukraine is anything to go by. However, none of this hardware is currently in the Estonian inventory. Even when they are, Palm insists that they will not reduce their reliance on Nato itself. Rather, interoperability is where the general thinks Nato ought to focus considerable efforts in attaining. “I have to say, Nato is extremely poor when it comes to interoperability and integration. Our systems integrate poorly together, as do our procedures – we are really, really bad at this,” Palm says. The solution? According to Palm, the alliance needs to start taking multi-national land operations against a conventionally armed opponent more seriously. “Interoperability and coordination is better in the aerial domain and maritime domain, but we need to get smarter about the land domain,” he says. “Ultimately, land is where most wars are fought, and we cannot just rely on airpower or long-range fires from the navy and artillery.”
While Russia is currently embroiled in Ukraine, and thousands of its troops have been killed, Palm believes it would not take the Kremlin more than two years to reconstitute and retrain its forces. This means that Nato is itself on a tight deadline to learn how to hit smarter as well as harder. After all, you simply never know when the Russian bear will finish licking its wounds, ready for another round. ●
Defence & Security Systems International /
www.defence-and-security.com
fotorobs/
Shutterstock.com; Estonian Defence Forces
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