34 | Country Focus: Sweden
Above left: Derome sawmill Above right: SCA’s Bollsta sawmill PHOTO: SUSANNHE MELIN
◄ With the proviso that costs are still a serious challenge, however, the EOS 2024- 25 report raised the possibility that sawn production may have bottomed out and that 2025 might prove a turning point, albeit a modest one. It reports production up 1.1% in 2024 and in April it forecast that 2025 would see growth of 1.75% , with output at 82.581 m3
million.
This overall performance tallies largely with that of Europe’s second biggest sawn softwood producer after Germany, Sweden. It hit the post pandemic boom heights in 2021 with output of 19.05 million m3 then fell to 18.87 million m3 further drop to 17.8 million m3
. Production
in 2022, with a in 2023 where
it stayed in 2024, despite gross fellings falling about 2% to 88.9 million m3
.
The EOS projection is for Swedish output to stick at around the 17.8 million m3
mark
in 2025. But writing in its report, Swedish Forest Industries Federation market expert Christian Nielsen, said that, with some significant provisos, there could be reasons for an optimistic view for the year with mills “continuing into 2025 on the more normal trend of the second half of 2024”, when production and shipments improved.
2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Above: Swedish total sawn softwood production TTJ | September/October 2025 |
www.ttjonline.com
At the same time, underlining a more positive outlook for the longer term, Sweden has recently seen some major capital spending in the sawmill sector.
Mr Nielsen wrote in the EOS 2024-2025 report that Swedish sawn production in 2024 “was essentially saved by surprisingly strong exports”. While overall sawn softwood production was static, total foreign sales were up around 3% at 13.99 million m3 the UK rose from 2.64 million m3 2.72 million m3
. Exports to in 2023 to
.
“At the same time, Swedish domestic sawnwood demand was almost down to a halt,” Mr Nielsen wrote. “The last time consumption was this low was in the 1990s banking crisis.”
Coming into 2025 there were concerns that strengthening of the Swedish krona (SEK) against the euro could impact export opportunities, however, it has since weakened. The euro, which dipped to SEK10.9 in March 2025, was at SEK11.18 on August 16 and exports have in fact continued to climb. “In the first six months of this year total exports are up 2%, and to the UK they’re 3% higher for the year to date,” Mr Nielsen told TTJ. “This is a stronger [performance] than
was initially feared when the Swedish krona was strengthening, with concerns also due to the high-cost-situation in Sweden at the moment.”
In 2024 the Swedish domestic softwood
market was at its lowest ebb since the 1990s banking crisis. The EOS report stated that moving into 2025, there were some signs of a pick-up fuelled by lower interest rates and the prospect of government subsidy for ‘private renovation’. Although it added that it remained unclear if these would be enough to produce a significant turnaround in the sluggish market. This latter view was borne out by the Swedish government’s decision to cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.8%, with the growth outlook for 2026 cut from 2.8% to 2.3%.
2025 2024 10 year average
Change compared with the same month last year
Month -10% Cumulative this year
Total prod. estimate (1,000m3
3% )
Month 656 Cumulative this year 10,359
Mr Nielsen said the Swedish domestic sawnwood market has not shown significant improvement in the first half of this year. “It’s proved to be somewhat of a disappointment during the second quarter despite introduction of subsidies for home renovation from May until the end of year,” said Mr Nielsen. “The market is slightly better than last year, but that was the worst year in the last 30. We expected to see much better domestic demand during the spring, which did not materialise. On the other hand, export volumes have outperformed our expectations, although the high-cost situation in Sweden means that many producers have been struggling to remain profitable.” An added issue for the Swedish industry, as for European sawnwood producers generally, has been the disruption caused by the on/off threat of imposition of US import tariffs. “The uncertainty remained even though Trump early on identified the supply of sawnwood to be a matter of national security interest, and as such excluded from any discussions of tariffs,” said Mr Nielsen. “The exclusion was to last at least until further review and the conclusion of a specialised “232 investigation” which would be
1,000m3
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