DAVID HESS | OPINION
At the moment African countries are frequently held hostage to power
rationing and blackouts. The continent possesses immense human talent and mineral resources – and yet currently only two operating power reactors.
25% of the world’s population by the year 2050. At the moment African countries are frequently held hostage to power rationing and blackouts. The continent possesses immense human talent and mineral resources – and yet currently only two operating power reactors. The median age of the population is about 20 as compared to 43 in Europe and 39 in north America. This makes for a young workforce eager to fill the jobs that more mature economies seem to struggle with. Some 30% of the world’s known critical mineral
reserves are within the continent, including cobalt, graphite, platinum and chromium. It is ironic that many of the minerals considered necessary for the low-carbon transformation exist in one of the most poorly powered continents. This irony should not be expected to persist indefinitely. As for positioning, well, it’s probably no accident that many world maps put Africa and the Middle East at the centre. Some of the most important trade routes in the word go through there, connecting Europe to Asia and the rest of the world. Zooming in on central Asia and it is frankly
remarkable how much depends on one country to supply uranium. Kazakhstan’s low cost in-situ leach uranium production supplies 40 to 50% of uranium demand year in and year out. The country is the ‘Saudi Arabia’ of uranium production, but unlike the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has been overtaken by USA in terms of global oil production recently, there is no country poised to displace Kazakhstan from this mantle. The country really is uniquely important to the
nuclear sector. So much so that any rumors of political instability causes jitters through the market. The fact that Russia and China have secured new build projects there, cementing their clout as nuclear partners to Kazakhstan, should really be sounding alarm bells in Western countries. As for Kazakhstan’s neighbours, there is reason to
expect that comparable uranium resources may be found in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, given their similar geology. Uzbekistan is moving ahead with Russian SMRs, but there would seem to be room for further nuclear energy development. Turkmenistan sits on one of the world’s largest natural gas reserves and is currently hooked on that. Its forays into nuclear energy are at a much earlier stage. Arriving in Southeast Asia, many members of the ASEAN club have expressed clear interest in developing nuclear energy. Apart from their rapidly growing economies and the articulated preference for low- carbon sustainable energy, the interesting speculation here is whether we could see the eventual emergence
of another major nuclear industry supplier and reactor vendor. In other words, who will be the next Japan, South Korea or China? Arguably the country to watch is Indonesia, which
has a long-established nuclear research heritage and has flirted with the idea of thorium and high temperature reactors for over a decade. In more recent years Indonesia has adopted an expansive and detailed plan for nuclear energy, beginning with imported SMR technology to be deployed on the islands and progressing to gigawatt-scale designs to power for the major population centres. This diversified approach certainly makes sense given the archipelago nature of the nation. If realised, it will also give them a broad experience in different power reactor technologies While meeting growing energy demand and
greenhouse gas targets may be the immediate drivers for Indonesia, (as well as the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia), there are some Indonesians with bolder ambitions. Technology transfer will likely be a key feature of vendor and partner selection considerations. If an indigenous Indonesian nuclear technology is established, it could supply future Indonesian new build. Indeed, it could take the place of a standardised ASEAN reactor design, with key components sourced from across the region to supply both domestic and export markets. South America boasts a blend of the above assets,
rich in resources and nuclear technical capability. Argentina especially is already a global nuclear supplier, and especially in the medical/research reactor arena and with fuel fabrication. However, the continent is blessed by an abundant hydropower resource, which so far has limited the rate of nuclear development in other South American countries. The unique factor here is that Brazil and Argentina
have experience with enrichment, which has supplied domestic needs. Even more interestingly, this seems to be tolerated internationally by the non-proliferation community. If nuclear energy was to expand in the continent generally, starting with these two established countries, it is not unreasonable to expect that enrichment and fuel fabrication could expand too, providing an alternative source for this vital service. To summarise, nuclear new build in Europe and North
America will for the most part result in more of the same benefits being enjoyed by the same people. Granted it might be nuclear technology of a different flavour which will be nice, but we’re talking marginal benefits here. By contrast nuclear energy development in these other strategic regions would be transformational and particularly to nuclear energy itself. ■
Nuclear energy development in these other strategic regions would be transformational and particularly to nuclear energy itself.
www.neimagazine.com | April 2026 | 15
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