INDUSTRY EXPERT
the authority across the road where the bar is much lower, how would you feel?
This will be a smaller industry with higher prices where drivers can once again earn good money as driver pay increases, which I am confident it will, otherwise how do you burn off demand and increase supply and pay for the transition to electric vehicles.
The various sideshow scraps over employment status will dissipate - who wants a revolution when you are doing well? The change from commuting to working from home, I believe will stay largely in place and may even expand. As a direct consequence public transport will reduce its capacity therefore providing overflow to cabs at busy times.
I believe smaller private hire companies will gradually merge, be acquired or disappear as the regulatory overhead becomes overwhelming. The smarter small operators will be in a position to profitably exit but some won’t. The regulatory overhead will in my view continue to grow, and whilst a lot of what will be required won’t actually achieve very much, the industry will continue to whinge at trade shows but not have any expectation of leadership, representation or effective lobbying so there will be nothing to stop policy makers continuing to meddle and be seen to ‘be doing something’.
I foresee the super regulators growing and a shift to regional authorities, not because it is a good idea but because so many local authorities are underfunded and overwhelmed by the caseloads of licensing, not only everything that moves, but a great deal else as well. Getting rid of the cabs will be seen by many authorities as a bonus. Turf wars between regulators are already starting to become evident; stand by for some real fireworks in the future. After all, if you are a well-funded licensing authority that is trying to do your best for the safety of your citizens and the private hire drivers and operators simply de-camp to
PHTM SEPTEMBER 2022
Technology will no doubt continue to enable more change and more options for the industry. Will autonomous private hire vehicles feature within the next thirty years? I doubt it. I don’t doubt it because of the technology, I don’t even doubt it from a liability/ insurance/regulatory perspective, I am just not seeing any evidence of the business case for 5G which is an absolute requirement within the current technologies to enable autonomous cars. I would expect to see a level of autonomy in places, such as airport car parks, where they are contained and 5G could deliver a business case to replace the largely empty buses that trundle around them. But widespread use of cars and private hire vehicles, I don’t think so, and neither do many big players who are exiting or looking at how they can exit with some dignity intact.
I suspect as the industry consolidates and serious money seeking serious returns takes hold, the madness of the last decade will be quickly forgotten. Likewise, more serious players will insist on updated and relevant legislation and sensible regulation. Larger players will organise themselves to have effective representation and lobby professionally for whatever is needed to take the industry forward in a sustainable manner. Policy makers will no doubt seek to move more obligations from local authority enforcement to be conditions of licensing, thereby freeing up licensing departments to manage the rest of their portfolio – this is already happening in some areas where authorities are overwhelmed.
I am probably in a minority, but I honestly believe the two-tier system will survive over the thirty-year horizon as the benefits of ad hoc hiring at ranks, stations, airports and along the street, together with wheelchair accessibility are a valuable asset to the transport network.
So, there you have it and if I am wrong, I won’t be around to take the brick bats but if I am right, perhaps someone could kindly have a collection and erect a statue!
Dr Michael S. Galvin
mobilityserviceslimited.com
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