Marine insurance in an increasingly volatile world


As we settle into 2024, Gard P&I Club has published its vision for the future of marine insurance in what is becoming an increasingly volatile world. More wars, increasing geopolitical tensions, unprovoked attacked on ships and more persistent inflation than expected. How is marine insurance likely to be impacted?


2022 was the year of increasing geopolitical tensions, war within Europe, and growing signs of a more divided world. Sadly, 2023 brought additional tragedies. The war in Ukraine persists, and on 7 October 2023, the world turned its eyes to yet another brutal conflict: Hamas launched a massive attack on Israel followed by large-scale retaliation in Gaza. Dark scenarios include a possible regional escalation in the Middle East as well as increased tensions in the South China Sea.


A more divided world also affects international trade, shipping, and thus marine insurance. This article focuses on the latter: how marine insurance has fared recently and what the crystal ball may signal about the future direction and challenges.


Impacts on marine insurance


Wars and conflicts have injected more uncertainty about the future. Prices of real goods and capital have


increased, and inflation has persisted for longer than expected. However, the world economy is growing still, and most trade and shipping markets have remained buoyant.


Perhaps contrary to popular belief, war and geopolitical tensions do not necessarily lead to increased maritime claims (with the obvious exception of war risk claims, as recent attacks on ships linked to Israel have shown). The main driver of maritime accidents


80 | ISSUE 107 | MAR 2024 | THE REPORT


AN OPINION ARTICLE


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