BAKERY COMMODITIES (CONT.) Vegetable Oils Market Insights:
The vegetable oil market is currently shaped by various factors, especially those related to palm oil and soybean oil.
Palm Oil:
The palm oil market is experiencing significant tightness. Indonesian palm oil stocks have sunk to a 24-month low, while Malaysian stocks are also lower than expected, reaching a three-year low. NOPA (National Oilseed Processors Association) stocks are at a ten-year low. These reduced stock levels indicate a tightening market, likely leading to higher prices. Indonesia's plans to start the B40 biodiesel program in January will increase domestic demand, further tightening global supply. Additionally, Ukraine’s sunflower oil production is expected to decline in the 2024/25 season, adding pressure to the overall vegetable oil market. Analysts are mixed on future production; some predict a rise in global palm oil production by 2.3 MMT for the 2024/25 season after a decline in the previous year.
Soybean Oil:
In the end, operators don’t have to compromise. The soybean oil market is also facing various influences. The USDA has reported lower soybean acres, but higher ending stocks, which might impact prices. October's NOPA crush numbers were above expectations and set a record, indicating strong processing activity. Brazil's soybean planting is progressing well, with CONAB (National Supply Company) projecting a significant increase in production. Argentina’s planting is ahead of schedule, and their crop estimates are slightly above USDA's projections. However, China's soybean imports are expected to decline sharply in the 2024/25 season, which could affect global demand. Additionally, the new EPA head, Lee Zeldin, is seen as an opponent of the biofuels industry, which might impact soybean oil demand for biodiesel production.
Overall, the vegetable oil market is characterized by tight supplies and varied production forecasts for both palm oil and soybean oil. These factors are likely to keep prices elevated for palm oil, subsequently influencing soybean oil pricing. The spread between palm and soybean oil has moved to near record levels, which should support soybean oil prices as users around the world look for palm oil alternatives.
Sugar Market Developments:
The sugar market is currently facing a period of uncertainty and fluctuating demand. For 2025, refined sugar sales have been slow, with sellers unsure about future demand levels. Beet processors and users are unconcerned, although some have withdrawn due to lower production and concerns over sugar content. U.S. prices are expected to have a solid floor, at least for now.
WHAT’S IN STORE | 2025
The USDA has sharply lowered its forecast for 2024- 25 U.S. sugar ending stocks from the previous month and last year, reducing the projected stocks-to-use ratio for the current year to 11.7%, down from 14.3% in October and 16.9% in the 2023-24 season. This decrease is attributed to lower beginning stocks, reduced beet and cane sugar production, and higher domestic deliveries, with only a slight increase in high- tier imports. Processing capacity remains a concern, and seasonality suggests a potential rally in prices. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a global deficit for the 2024-25 season, indicating tighter supply conditions.
Despite these challenges, beginning stocks are up 17.3% year-on-year, and the 2023-24 supply has increased by 1.1% due to higher imports. While deliveries have been slow, there has been a recent uptick in demand from food manufacturers, especially private labels. Mexican sugar prices are falling, and there has been a drop in demand from cocoa users.
Butter Market Overview:
The butter market is currently influenced by both bearish and bullish factors, leading to a dynamic environment for instance...
Butter Market Overview:
The butter market is currently influenced by both bearish and bullish factors, leading to a dynamic environment for instance...
Bearish Factors:
• End-of-September 2024 butter stocks in cold storage have risen, contributing to bearish sentiment.
• The prevalence of Blue Tongue disease in the EU poses risks to production.
• U.S. butter production saw a significant increase of 11.3% year-over-year in September 2024, reaching the billion-pound mark before June for the first time.
• There is more available cream in the upper Midwest, with some churners turning it away.
• Milk production is up by 0.2%, and early holiday purchasing has ended, contributing to increased supply, which could pressure prices.
Bullish Factors:
• Cash butter prices have dropped by approximately sixty cents (19%) in one month and have since stabilized.
• September 2024 butter exports increased by 22% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, although the U.S. remains a net importer.
• Extra EU butter stocks are basically non-existent.
• Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Chinese stimulus measures add to market uncertainty.
© 2025 International Dairy Deli Bakery Association Bakery Commodities 106
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126 |
Page 127 |
Page 128 |
Page 129 |
Page 130 |
Page 131 |
Page 132 |
Page 133 |
Page 134 |
Page 135 |
Page 136 |
Page 137 |
Page 138 |
Page 139 |
Page 140 |
Page 141 |
Page 142 |
Page 143 |
Page 144 |
Page 145 |
Page 146 |
Page 147 |
Page 148 |
Page 149 |
Page 150 |
Page 151 |
Page 152 |
Page 153 |
Page 154 |
Page 155 |
Page 156 |
Page 157 |
Page 158 |
Page 159 |
Page 160 |
Page 161 |
Page 162 |
Page 163 |
Page 164 |
Page 165 |
Page 166 |
Page 167 |
Page 168 |
Page 169 |
Page 170 |
Page 171 |
Page 172 |
Page 173 |
Page 174 |
Page 175 |
Page 176 |
Page 177 |
Page 178 |
Page 179 |
Page 180 |
Page 181 |
Page 182 |
Page 183 |
Page 184 |
Page 185 |
Page 186 |
Page 187 |
Page 188 |
Page 189 |
Page 190 |
Page 191 |
Page 192 |
Page 193 |
Page 194 |
Page 195 |
Page 196 |
Page 197 |
Page 198 |
Page 199 |
Page 200 |
Page 201 |
Page 202 |
Page 203 |
Page 204 |
Page 205 |
Page 206 |
Page 207 |
Page 208 |
Page 209 |
Page 210 |
Page 211 |
Page 212 |
Page 213 |
Page 214 |
Page 215 |
Page 216 |
Page 217 |
Page 218 |
Page 219 |
Page 220 |
Page 221 |
Page 222 |
Page 223 |
Page 224 |
Page 225 |
Page 226 |
Page 227 |
Page 228 |
Page 229 |
Page 230 |
Page 231 |
Page 232 |
Page 233 |
Page 234 |
Page 235 |
Page 236 |
Page 237 |
Page 238 |
Page 239 |
Page 240 |
Page 241 |
Page 242 |
Page 243 |
Page 244 |
Page 245 |
Page 246 |
Page 247 |
Page 248 |
Page 249 |
Page 250 |
Page 251 |
Page 252 |
Page 253 |
Page 254 |
Page 255 |
Page 256 |
Page 257 |
Page 258 |
Page 259 |
Page 260 |
Page 261 |
Page 262 |
Page 263 |
Page 264 |
Page 265 |
Page 266 |
Page 267 |
Page 268 |
Page 269 |
Page 270 |
Page 271 |
Page 272 |
Page 273 |
Page 274 |
Page 275 |
Page 276 |
Page 277 |
Page 278 |
Page 279 |
Page 280 |
Page 281 |
Page 282 |
Page 283 |
Page 284 |
Page 285 |
Page 286 |
Page 287 |
Page 288 |
Page 289 |
Page 290 |
Page 291 |
Page 292 |
Page 293 |
Page 294 |
Page 295 |
Page 296 |
Page 297 |
Page 298 |
Page 299 |
Page 300 |
Page 301 |
Page 302 |
Page 303 |
Page 304 |
Page 305 |
Page 306 |
Page 307 |
Page 308 |
Page 309 |
Page 310 |
Page 311 |
Page 312 |
Page 313 |
Page 314 |
Page 315 |
Page 316 |
Page 317 |
Page 318 |
Page 319 |
Page 320 |
Page 321 |
Page 322 |
Page 323 |
Page 324 |
Page 325 |
Page 326 |
Page 327 |
Page 328 |
Page 329 |
Page 330 |
Page 331 |
Page 332 |
Page 333 |
Page 334 |
Page 335 |
Page 336 |
Page 337 |
Page 338 |
Page 339 |
Page 340 |
Page 341 |
Page 342 |
Page 343 |
Page 344 |
Page 345 |
Page 346 |
Page 347 |
Page 348 |
Page 349 |
Page 350 |
Page 351 |
Page 352 |
Page 353 |
Page 354 |
Page 355 |
Page 356 |
Page 357 |
Page 358 |
Page 359 |
Page 360 |
Page 361 |
Page 362
