experienced by the IGT subsegment, although not yet to the figures of 2019 (+5.6%) it is the Commercial Aerospace subsegment the one that is lagging the recovery. The growth observed (+17%) is still very far away from the 2019 figures. Within the subsegment also differences have been observed between narrow bodies application with better recovery indicators that those related with wide body applications. All in all, the segment experienced
a recovery of +13.7% vs the figures of 2020 and still with a significant road ahead to get back to the figures of 2019. Some data from “IATA Industry
Statistics Fact Sheet” illustrate the effects on the Commercial Aerospace via some significant monitors of the Covid impact and the limited recovery evolution experienced in 2021. The driver of this segment as
indicated is Commercial Aerospace and the normalization in passengers’ traffic is essential for this comeback. However, forecast studies for Commercial Aerospace foresee a return to the growth path, with estimates indicating figures of passengers equivalent to 2019 by the second half of 2022 or the less optimistic situates this comeback to the last quarter of 2024. Proceeding from this 2 or 3 year lag a continuous growth of RPK (Revenue passenger kilometers) 2019 – 2040 is foreseen at a rate of 3.9% CAGR. Prospects for IC parts aiming Commercial Aerospace market are good, although companies are bound to navigate to this 3 to 4 years workload reduction period. The subsegment devoted to the
Industrial Gas Turbines will also experience a significant growth in the years to come. The European gas turbine market is expected to register a CAGR
®
of more than 2.97% during the forecast period 2020-2025. The shift from coal to gas generation based on the reduced emissions policies together with the technological advancements in the gas turbine industry position this sector as a sector of interest for Investment Casters. Defence Aerospace was a
subsegment less affected by the pandemic and in fact during 2021 practically has been fully recovered. European countries have sustained defence budgets mostly stable, as military programs continue to be relevant to national defence, especially when considering geopolitical tensions arising. Key defence aerospace projects such as Tempest in the UK and the Europe’s Next-Generation Fighter (NGF) continue their development process aiming to provide the future advance fighter systems in Europe. 2.2 Automotive
The European passenger car market experienced a contraction in September, establishing the lowest number of registrations since 1995 for the month of September. This drop in sales was mostly influenced by the difficulty of supplies in vehicles due to the shortages on semiconductors. This change in demand has produced an effect into the supply change also with an adjusted demand that European foundries did experiment in the last quarter of 2021, affecting to the good recovery path that the segment was having. The overall recovery for the year is forecasted to (+10%) but still far away from the levels of 2019. The IC automotive application have maintained the share (14%) within the overall 2021 market.
Prospects for demand of passenger
vehicles and commercial vehicles Continued on pg 18
January 2022 ❘ 17
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