Industry Forecast Continued from pg 13 Combined Civil and Military
Industrial Marine Gas Turbines totaled 710 units in 2021, representing a 7% increase from the 665 delivered in 2020. A total of 778 turbines are scheduled for delivery in 2022 for a 10% increase over 2021. The 5-year CAGR (2020-2024) for the total market sector is forecast to be 6.5%.
As a result, North American
foundries realized 2021 investment casting sales of approximately $730 Million, up 6.5% from last year’s sales of $690 Million. Investment casting sales of $810 Million are forecast for 2022, the highest sales level for this sector since 2017.
Automotive Last year’s forecast projected 2021 North American Automotive investment sales to reach $380 Million, which represents 15% growth over 2020 actuals. Though a stronger recovery was anticipated, supply chain issues, related to semiconductor devices, hindered 2021 growth. As a result, 2021 sales to this sector are estimated at $340 Million, which represents 3.5% growth over prior year’s sales.
In 2022, most industry analysts are
forecasting that monthly automotive sales will return to the 16 million level or better. At that level, investment casting sales should return to the $360 Million level, 15% short of pre-pandemic sales of $430 Million.
General Industry In general, aggregate North American investment casting sales to the General Industry Market Segment tend to correlate with the rate of industrial production which reflects a 5.6% increase from 2020. Although individual subsector performance deviated from this rule of thumb, as depicted in the chart on the previous page, in aggregate
14 ❘ January 2022 ®
North American Report
North American Investment casting sales serving the General Industry market does in fact correlate to the rate of US Industrial Production.
As previously noted, Industrial
Production for 2021 is estimated at 5.6%. Our analysis has resulted in 2021 casting sales totaling $770 million, representing a 5.4% growth over 2020. Using the same methodology, the investment casting sales forecast for 2022 is $790 Million, or 2.5% growth when compared to 2021. This is significant in that should the industry perform as expected, General Industry Casting Sales will be at the pre-pandemic level in 2022.
Summary When taking all markets under consideration, 2021 sales are estimated at $5.09 Billion, 9.6% stronger than the prior Year. This places 2021 on a par with 2013, which posted $5.04 Billion. When comparing the 2021 with 2019 pre-pandemic investment casting sales
of $6.04 Billion, we find that we are still 16% short of the industry peak.
Due to the recovery/growth rate we
are seeing in the in both Commercial and Military Aerospace, augmented by Boeing depleting their 737 Max inventory and returning to production and the introduction of several new Industrial Gas Turbine programs, 2022 aggregate North American investment casting sales are anticipated to be $6.03 Billion, nearly the 2019 level of $6.04 Billion. This should not be mistaken for full recovery as Automotive will be lagging.
A detailed market review will be
prepared and presented at this year’s Business and Leadership Development Conference.
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