Industry Forecast
North American Report
North American Investment Casting Performance and Outlook
by Joseph E. Fritz, Executive Director, Investment Casting Institute Preface
rate of North American recovery to be as strong as the data represents. The fact is that both society and industry have been adjusting to the new normal, with the Delta variant having only a minor hinderance on recovery performance. This is evidenced through growth in all market sectors and heightened manufacturer optimism when discussing the outlook for 2022.
W At the time when I was discussing
2022 outlook with North American Foundries and casting buyers, there was little or no knowledge of the Omicron variant. As a result, the potential effect that it can have on consumer behavior and industrial performance was not taken into account. It is important that the reader bear this in mind when using forecast data presented.
All data presented for the years prior
to and including November 2021 reflects actual data from, foundries, government and commercial sources. Data for December 2021 has been estimated and forecast data for the years 2022-2024 were compiled from data provided by ICI Members, customers and other trade associations.
2021 Overview In 2021, most sectors posted strong gains against 2020 performance. The weakest performer, Automotive, was hindered by the lack of availability of semiconductor components. This throttled 2021 growth downward to 3.5%. The strongest performer,
10 ❘ January 2022 ®
hile performing my analysis in preparation of this article, I was surprised to find the
Aerospace, realized 12% growth driven by defense procurement, which was up by 29%. IGT realized 6.5% growth and appears to be making a much-awaited comeback with the promise of new engine programs and retrofits. General Industry realized 5.4% growth, with subsector performance ranging from 2.5% to 15%.
In total, North American Investment
Casting Sales rose by 9.6% to $5.1 Billion, which puts the year on a par with 2013. Beyond well publicized supply chain issues, the industry was plagued by a labor shortage, which resulted in schedule push outs in a number of sectors.
Aerospace US carrier domestic and international air traffic rebounded from last year’s 378
In spite of lower than traditional
air traffic levels, the world’s airlines accepted delivery of 916 airframes in 2021, replacing older aircraft not returning to service. Of these, 208 were twin aisle wide body aircraft and 708 single aisle, narrow body aircraft. This represents a 21% increase in delivery performance when compared with 2020.
million Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM) by 75% to 663 million in 2021. Carriers responded by restoring 284 million Available Seat Miles (ASM) to service, a 44% increase. This resulted in bringing Load Factor (LF) up to 72 from 2020’s low of 59. Though this paints a healthier picture, it is not anticipated that LF will return to the 2019 level of 85 until 2025 or later.
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