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new vehicle fleet. However, unless unanticipated technological breakthroughs in battery technology are achieved, the range limitations, higher cost, and other disadvantages of full battery electric vehicles are likely to limit their rate of adoption over the near term without more robust policy support.
While the ingenuity and creativity of the world’s automakers are not in question, the relentless push for efficiency may well result in growing uniformity across vehicle designs. Smaller, less powerful and more aerodynamic vehicles may tend to reduce product differentiation and styling differences, making them less important in vehicle choice.
Changing mobility technology and choices… As these trends have gained influence and new mobility options have evolved, consumers are increasingly considering mobility as a “utility” service, rather than a form of self-expression and individual fulfillment. The explosive growth of Uber® US and Didi Dache®
in the in China, as well as other similar services
globally, has caused billions of individual driver-miles to be replaced with ride-sharing miles. As drivers become riders, they are able to use the time spent in vehicles more productively, and reduce the total time spent on mobility by eliminating parking time and congestion delays. In addition, they can replace the fixed expense of car ownership with the variable expense of ride sharing. As drivers become riders, the utility of mobility becomes more important than the style of mobility, and the desire for an individualized mobility experience is replaced by the desire for a predictable mobility experience. As long as the ride meets the rider’s expectations for comfort and convenience, the characteristics of the vehicle become less and less important to the mobility consumer. This phenomenon has already been seen in the proliferation of car-sharing services such as Car2Go®
,
in which a fleet of identical, anonymous, and efficient vehicles effectively replace the individual user’s need for personal vehicle ownership.
Autonomous vehicle technology creates the possibility to accelerate these trends. If the driver becomes a full-time rider, then the driving experience becomes irrelevant, and the riding experience becomes paramount. A fleet of autonomous vehicles controlled by ride-sharing services offers predictable mobility without individuality, and completes the transformation of mobility into a utility. While differentiation and competition between mobility providers will certainly remain heated, the differentiation will end when a consumer has decided on a provider, just as a mobile phone company’s service is determined by the quality of the network, not by the individual cellular tower transmitting a call.
How will these drivers change the vehicle fleet? The ultimate path of changes in technology, industry, consumer behavior and personal preferences are cloudy, but some trends are clear at this time. The regulatory structures now in place around the world will continue to improve vehicle efficiency and are unlikely to be reversed, particularly as they have become integral to carbon reduction strategies. As a result, the new vehicles entering the fleet will become smaller and lighter, with smaller engines and more efficient drive trains. A growing proportion will have hybrid electric drive trains and be fully electric, displacing traditional combustion engine vehicles. By 2025, IHS’ base outlook scenario expects that about 18 percent of new light duty vehicles globally will have some form of hybrid drive system, with less than 2 percent being fully battery-
powered vehicles. However, by 2040, these proportions increase to 36 percent and 6 percent as battery technology continues to advance and costs continue to decline.
The rapidly changing drivers of mobility create great uncertainty in the outlook, and make it valuable to consider alternative outcomes. In “Autonomy”, one of IHS’ primary alternate scenarios, greater environmental pressures and technological advances accelerate the alternative mobility choices described above. Overall vehicle sales are lower due in part to greater use of autonomous and shared vehicles, but hybrids reach 22 percent penetration by 2025 on their way to 50 percent by 2040. Battery electrics are only slightly more successful by 2025, but approach 15 percent by 2040.
While these differences may seem modest, the size of the global vehicle fleet amplifies even small differences in sales. By 2040, the base outlook envisions just under 60 million battery electric vehicles on the road worldwide, while the Autonomy scenario fleet has twice as many.
How will these changes affect lubricants? As the future vehicle fleet evolves, lubricant volumes and qualities will evolve in parallel. The key trend that has influenced the lubricant market over the past 25 years – higher quality leading to lower loss levels and drain interval extension – will continue to be felt. However, the most significant impacts of the new mobility trends will come from changes in the nature of vehicles themselves, as the fleet becomes smaller, more efficient, and more electrified.
To illustrate the potential impact, consider the lubricant consumption of four representative vehicles: • Ford F-150 Full-size Pickup – still the largest-selling vehicle in North America
• BMW 335i – mid-size gasoline-powered sedan • Toyota Prius – hybrid compact sedan • Tesla Model 3 – battery-electric compact currently slated for delivery beginning 2017
The figure below compares the initial fill and service fill volumes for engine oil and automatic transmission fluid (ATF) for these four models, assuming automatic transmissions in each. For the Tesla, the gearbox lubricant fluid capacity is used, since it does not have a conventional transmission. Over a 10-year ownership period, based on manufacturers’ service intervals, normal operating conditions, and 16,000 kilometers (10,000 miles) driven per year, the Ford F-150 would consume 125 liters of ATF and engine oil, versus 55 for the BMW 335i, 44 for the Toyota Prius and 4 for the Tesla.
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LUBE MAGAZINE NO.135 OCTOBER 2016
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