The 2016 UEIL Annual Congress will feature Blake Eskew as Keynote Speaker, addressing future mobility and personal transportation trends and their effects on the lubricants industry. The Congress will be held October 26-28 in Berlin (Germany) and offers a unique opportunity to players in the European and global Lubricants industry to meet and network, strengthen their relationships, and learn more about the latest developments from a technological, economic, marketing and regulatory perspective. For more information and registration details, please see:
www.ueil.org/en/EVENTS/Congress-2016/Overview/
Changing personal mobility:
how will technology, policy, and society transform the transportation and lubricant industries?
Blake Eskew, Vice President, IHS Markit Inc. Kevin Lindemer, Managing Director, IHS Markit Inc. Tiffany Groode, Managing Director, IHS Markit Inc.
Author Biographies: Blake Eskew leads the worldwide consulting practice for the Oil Markets, Midstream, and Downstream group within IHS Energy Insight. He focuses on providing market analysis, strategic business analysis, and acquisition/project development support to the crude oil, refined product, base oil, and lubricant industries.
Kevin Lindemer, Managing Director in IHS’ Downstream Consulting practice, focuses on strategy development, strategic market analysis and acquisition support for downstream clients, with an emphasis on alternative fuels, biofuels issues, and mobility trends.
Dr. Tiffany Groode leads the IHS Automotive Scenarios service, including vehicle and fuels modeling and long-term forecasting. She focuses on analysis of the impact of future alternative vehicle and fuels technology on the automotive and energy sectors.
The pursuit of personal mobility – the capability of individuals to move from place to place to satisfy their needs and desires – has been one of the major forces behind the development of technology and the organisation of living patterns. Throughout history, changes in personal mobility have moved in parallel with societal changes. Just as Roman roads created the environment vital to the development and control of an integrated, international civilization, the rise of the automobile allowed dense cities to evolve into sprawling metropolises knitted together by complex highway networks. The need for personal transportation fuels helped spur the growth of the global oil industry, and the ever-increasing technical demands on vehicles spurred the development of advanced lubricants with dramatically extended service lives. Today, technologies, demographics, environmental pressures, economics, lifestyles, and attitudes are changing in ways that may result in another transformation in personal mobility, with dramatic implications for the global industries that have grown to serve today’s mobility needs.
Historical changes in mobility have had major impacts
Since the “automobile age” began in the early 20th Century, personal mobility has become more and more dependent on the personal vehicle - cars, motorcycles, and light trucks. These vehicles have directly and indirectly propelled the development of a number of global, regional, and local industries. Direct beneficiaries include vehicle production and distribution, vehicle fueling and lubrication, vehicle repair and servicing, and vehicle parts and supplies, along with the materials, tools, and fabrication industries that support them. The indirect effects are too many to enumerate, but include road and infrastructure construction, real estate development in previously-inconvenient locations, motor sports and other entertainment forms, and development of tourism sites and services. A 2015 study
reported that the automotive manufacturing and distribution industries provided roughly 5% of total US employment, with vehicle manufacturing contributing 3.0-3.5% of GDP1
.
While the rise of the automobile created both winners and losers, the losers tend to be forgotten now. However, the car was the instrument for the rapid undoing of two major forms of mobility early in the 20th century. The advent of the car brought greater mobility to the consumer while causing a rapid drop in the ownership of horses and passenger travel on trains. In the US, these alternative modes of mobility peaked between 1915 and 1920, following the introduction of mass production at Ford in 1913. From 1920 to 1940, the horse population fell by over 40 percent and rail travel fell by over 50 percent. Both of these modes of transportation had been considered necessary, entrenched, and part of the country’s culture, but their use plummeted as the advantages of the automobile gave it a growing role in personal mobility.
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LUBE MAGAZINE NO.135 OCTOBER 2016
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