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The activities that supported these alternatives were affected as well. For example, the land required to supply hay to the number of horses removed from the census between 1915/1920 and 1930 in the US was on the order of 19 million acres – roughly equivalent to the combined areas of the states of New Hampshire and Vermont. The country’s agriculture industry was transformed from a food and fuel industry to a supplier of food – an early example of food winning the “food versus fuel” debate.


Why is mobility changing? Today, many factors are affecting transportation, and their influence on personal mobility is growing. Over the past 15 years, global annual sales of new light duty vehicles2


have been observed in other countries, but the behavior is an intriguing departure from past patterns, in which virtually all young people in many countries obtain driver’s licenses as soon as they are old enough.


have grown


from 56 million per year to 88 million, and the global light duty fleet has grown from 730 million to 1.2 billion. This annual average growth of over 3% for both measures has exceeded global GDP (just under 3%), and is more than double the growth in the global working-age population. This rapid growth was driven by expanding vehicle sales in Asia, and particularly China, which accounted for 17 percent of global new light duty vehicle sales over the 2000-2015 period, and 28 percent in 2015. In these markets, the drive for personal vehicle ownership has been exceptionally strong, just as it was in the more mature markets of Europe and North America in decades past.


The tide of rapidly-increasing personal vehicle sales and ownership now appears to be turning. In China, new vehicle sales grew at an annual average rate of 23 percent from 2000 through 2010 before falling to 7.5 percent from 2010 through 2015. Sales growth in 2015-2017 is expected to average only 4 percent, well below the rate of economic growth. It may be that China is reaching a point of saturation - the country now has roughly 190 vehicles per 1000 persons of working age in the population, which is similar to Singapore, and well below ownership levels in the US and Europe (1180 and 730 vehicles per 1000 persons of working age in the population, respectively). However, there are many factors affecting vehicle ownership in China which are being experienced across the globe, and will have increasing influence over the coming years. These factors range from the individual to the global – from personal preferences to societal trends to technology breakthroughs to international commitments, as discussed below.


Changing demographics…


In almost every place and time, birth rates have declined as average incomes have increased. In countries with a long history of strong economic growth, birth rates are falling to levels approaching or even below replacement rates. As a result, average ages are increasing, and the working-age (typically 15 to 64 years old) populations are flat to declining. Only the Africa and Asia-Pacific regions have strong growth in the working-age population, and Asia-Pacific’s is expected to plateau before 2030. As populations age, a growing number of people will no longer be working and thus not be engaging in daily commuting, lowering the overall vehicle travel needs. They will also increasingly be moving into age cohorts who may be looking for new options to provide their mobility needs.


Changing preferences and behaviours… Recent studies have demonstrated that in the US, Canada, Great Britain, Japan, South Korea, and several other countries, the proportion of young people who obtain driver’s licenses has fallen dramatically over the past 10 to 20 years. In the US, the proportion of 18-year olds with driver’s licenses has fallen from 80 percent in 1983 to 60 percent in 201434


. Different patterns


The reasons for this emerging trend are likely many and vary from country to country. Reasons may include higher costs of car ownership, greater reliance on e-commerce, expanded options for telecommuting, congestion and urbanization, and the rapid spread of ride-sharing services. The 2011 study found an association between lower driving participation and higher levels of Internet use, which could imply that virtual interaction is replacing physical interaction, or that Internet-delivered services are providing mobility without the need to drive. All of these factors are themselves major influences on changing mobility.


Changing living patterns… The pace of growing urbanization, and increasing population density in urban areas, are creating new incentives to re-invent mobility solutions. By 2025, 87 percent of the US population will live in urban areas, versus 83 percent in 2015. The trend is more pronounced in the rapidly-developing Asia-Pacific countries, with China moving from 52 percent to 71 percent over the same period. Greater urbanization and greater density inevitably lead to greater congestion, which reduce the value of personal vehicle use due to increased delays, higher ownership expenses for parking, tolls, congestion charges, etc., and increased time wasted in traffic. In addition, governmental policies in many countries and cities are aimed at reducing vehicle ownership and use to both reduce congestion and improve local air quality.


Changing vehicles… In response to carbon reduction commitments, energy security goals, and air quality improvement plans, vehicles and powertrain options are changing quickly. Requirements for increased vehicle efficiency are well under way around the world, in, for example, the US, Europe, China, Mexico, and even Saudi Arabia. While the starting and ending points for efficiency vary, the efficiency of new vehicles is expected to increase by 30 to 40 percent by 2025 in most world markets.


Many different options are being pursued to improve vehicle efficiency. Vehicles are being downsized, new lightweight materials are being substituted for traditional materials, engines are becoming smaller and more efficient, and aerodynamics are improving. In addition, hybrid and electric drive trains are being more widely incorporated, with faster-than-expected declines in battery costs resulting in more rapid electrification of the


Continued on page 8


LUBE MAGAZINE NO.135 OCTOBER 2016


7


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