sales population GDP
vehicles in use
market share
The German market has outperformed across the period reflecting the success of the German industrial base, prior to 2007 and post 2010.
From 2003 to 2007, lubricants demand in Germany bucked the general European trend and grew at slightly over 1% pa so that at the end of 2007, lubricants demand was up 7%. Only to fall by over 20% the following year, as the Capital goods cycle ended and the financial crisis impacted markets.
Post crisis, the German market has recovered sharply. By the end of 2013 it had stabilised at just 11% below the 2003 figure. It is not surprising that several of the majors have concentrated lubricants activities in the largest European market.
Elsewhere the pattern of recovery has been very different. The Core Lubricants markets are 29% down on the 2003 figure.
Explanatory factors The key factors are picked up by several of the national market reports. Falling per capita consumption is a reflection of the success story of the lubricants industry in improving performance. The progressive introduction of synthetic oils with longer drain intervals has reduced demand for Automotive engine oils. Many drivelines are now ‘filled for life’. This is reflected in increasing percentages of Industrial and other oils in many markets.
Market Outlook The Eurozone has suffered a prolonged period of economic slowdown. Recovery is beginning to emerge in some of the peripheral countries that suffered worst in the downturn. For example, Iberia is beginning to pick up, though we may have to wait for the 2015 figures for this to be fully clear.
We can reasonably expect that the continued developments in lubricants performance will lead to a continuous 2% pa reduction in volumes. This will hide a considerable change in performance.
Sebastian Crawshaw, President EuropaLub
EuropaLub activities
The ELISSE Market Summary is available as a publication and as an electronic service with summaries for each of the biggest 13 countries.
The next phase of research will extend both detail within the leading countries and extend the reach to the other European countries not currently reported on in detail.
To purchase the Market Summary, the publication is available from Lube Magazine at a price of €98, with special terms for members of EuropaLub affiliated trade associations.
If you want more detailed figures, in MS Excel format for market planning purposes, electronic licensing arrangements are available, with prices ranging from €280 – €10,000 depending on the data set required. Please contact Suzy Jarman for details
suzy@ukla.org.uk
LUBE MAGAZINE NO.127 JUNE 2015
37
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