The European Lubricants Industry Statistics Service - ELISSE
How successful has the European Lubricants industry been over the last 10 years?
What is success?
Recent figures being collected by EuropaLub show that despite a growth in population from 410m to 430m as well as a growth in economic activity, lubricants consumption has fallen by 24% from 2003 to 2013. Per capita consumption has reduced by 28%. This may seem like bad news to companies trying to grow, but as a statement of our industry’s success in managing resources and achieving improved efficiency, it is a strong message. This may not be such good news for the growth oriented company!
Market planning With the support of UEIL and the EuropaLub Membership, EuropaLub is being re-launched. The ELISSE Market Summary pulls together the latest estimate of market evolution up to 2013. Having access to the base numbers may be very useful at looking for opportunities.
EuropaLub has collated the Market statistics from 6 core countries where lubricants data has been collected (in rather different formats). This data has been supplemented by EuropaLub/AIEE estimates for a further 7 countries. Combined, these countries account for around 85% of the European lubricants market volumes.
Estimates have been arrived by examining the three key factors: 1) Population; 2) GDP; and 3) Number of vehicles in use. These factors have been modelled/adapted for each market and fitted to the regression curves to produce the best estimates for that local market, with a local commentary from practitioners in those markets. (These figures will be revised as more research is completed and more variables are taken into consideration). The EuropaLub work shows the range of variations in the different markets. What does this tell us?
Market Summary – Volume The core 13 European Lubricant markets have fallen on average by 24% since 2003. Volumes for the key group of markets fell from 4.98 million tonnes in 2003 to 3.78m in 2013.
Explanatory factors The key factors are picked up by several of the national market reports. Falling per capita consumption is a reflection of the success story of the lubricants industry in improving performance. The progressive introduction of synthetic oils with longer drain intervals has reduced demand for Automotive engine oils. Many drivelines are now ‘filled for life’. This is reflected in increasing percentages of Industrial and other oils in many markets.
36 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.127 JUNE 2015
Outlook The Eurozone has suffered a prolonged period of economic slowdown. Recovery is beginning to emerge in some of the peripheral countries that suffered worst in the downturn. For example Iberia is beginning to pick up, though we may have to wait for the 2015 figures for this to be fully clear.
Methodology Europalub has collated the Market statistics from six core countries where lubricants data has been collected (in rather different formats). This data has been supplemented by EuropaLub/AIEE estimates for a further seven countries. Combined these countries account for around 85% of the European lubricants market volumes.
Estimates have been arrived by examining the 3 key factors, Population, GDP, number of vehicles in use. These factors have been modelled, adapted for each market and fitted to the regression curves to produce the best estimates for that local market.
All statistics are subject to errors in collection and estimation. We expect to revise these figures as more research is completed and more variables are taken into consideration.
Given that these countries account for close to 85% of the European market of the total market for 31 countries is estimated to have fallen from 5.9m to 4.6m tonnes.
This is despite an increase in population from 410 to 430 million people and GDP growth. Overall consumption per capita has reduced by 28%. These summaries obscure several key stories: 1. 2003 – prior to the Financial Crisis 2. Post Financial crisis 3. German market performance
From 2003 to 2008, prior to the impact of the financial crisis, European GDP grew steadily supported by low interest rates for the peripheral countries and the impact of the development of emerging Eastern markets. But even during this period lubricant demand slipped behind GPD growth. Average demand (excluding Germany) slid by 2-3% per year.
Europe Summary
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