LOCAL REPORT Africa
Dr. Mathias Woydt, Managing Director, Matrilub Dr. Raj Shah, Director, Koehler Instrument Company Ms. Mrinaleni Das, Chemical Engineering student, Stony Brook University
The motorisation rate in Africa is low, with ~42 motor vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants (inh.) compared with the global average of ~182 or ~590 motor vehicles per 1000 inhabitants for EU28. With a share of global production of ~2.5%, the vehicle market of Africa depends on imports of used vehicles from overseas. Half of the global growth in population by about 2050 will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, with projected growth from 1 billion to 2 billion. Outdated infrastructure and limited maintenance will damper the growth of transportation. It has to be noted that frequent outages and weak grids prohibit e-mobility. A strong midterm increase in automotive lubricant demand can be foreseen for Africa. In 2019, the annual global consumption of automotive lubricants was 23.9 million metric tons. The demand for finished lubricants in Africa turns around 700,000 metric tons for industrial lubricants and around 1,000,000 metric tons for automotive and transportation, of which only South Africa consumes ~400,000 metric tons due to its higher motorisation.
The average age of motorised vehicles in Africa is over 20 years, and the market is dominated by second- hand imports from overseas. As a consequence, the average demand will stick to older API or ACEA specifications and not call for synthetics or Group III/III+ automotive lubricants. The average climate in Africa poses questions about the need for a wide range of multigrade engine oils. Apart from applications in new machinery and motorised vehicle imports, the overall remaining market won’t call for synthetics in the next decades. On the other hand, policies for cleaner cars and fuels will raise the demand and close the gap between Africa and the rest of the world for high-performance engine oils.
Two-stroke motorcycle oils Two-stroke motorcycles are, in emerging countries, the first step of motorisation and an affordable one. As the lubricants are directly combusted with the fuel, the exhausts are not only a daily nuisance but represent significant air pollution and contaminate waters. That´s
50 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.172 DECEMBER 2022
why quite early in Europe, 2-stroke oils based on mineral oils were substituted by esters or polyglycols as well as by synthetic 2-stroke lubes. Especially polyglycols and, in part, esters offer “clean burning” properties. In some Asian countries, 2-stroke motorcycles are banned or were substituted by e-scooters. This development will certainly occur in urbanisations in Africa until 2050, with a forecasted 950 million citizens.
Waste management and re-refining The collection of used oils and the request for bio-no-tox properties represent the key motivations to minimise the adverse effects of oils on the environment. The main reason for oil collection is not the conversation of resources but to keep lubes away from waters and soils. One L (litre) of lubes pollutes 1 million L of water. Safe waste management of used oil is not well controlled and managed in Africa. In light of the undisputed relationship between oil with water and soil quality, it is likely, that those step-by- step policies will also restrict African spills and “wild” disposals.
Sustainability and content of renewables Growth in population and wealth, as well as industrialisation, will fuel the demand for mobility, preferably using internal combustion engines due to weak grids. Considering the current trends, it can be concluded that the lube market in African countries differs from the traditional European and American automotive markets because of the difference in geographic and socio-economic demand as well as the composition of the vehicle pool. Because of the warm weather, there won’t ever be a primary demand for VI improvers, and the presence of huge numbers of secondhand vehicles raises questions about the viability of synthetics. However, the relatively warm climate opens doors for sustainable lubricants from biogenic resources since the production of oil-producing plants is more manageable in such an environment. Therefore, the lubricants market in Africa is predicted to have a diverse and unique nature compared to the rest of the world.
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