Continued from page 42
On the positive side, there is increased employment associated with the generation of additional electricity and hydrogen, and some increase in employment in electrical equipment, reflecting the shift to new supply chains associated with electric motors. However, the largest increases in employment come in sectors that benefit from the changes in consumer spending; with lower mobility costs, households have income free to spend on other goods and services, and this drives increased employment in the manufacturing (of consumer goods) and services (thanks to consumer services such as hotels and restaurants).
This makes clear some of the key challenges associated with the transition, which are most acute for the current oil and automotive industries. Oil imports are reduced dramatically – in the central technology scenario, oil imports are reduced by 513 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe) per year in 2030, and 1,578 mboe per year in 2050. While most of the impact of this falls outside Europe, it will impact upon European refining, as well as potentially on industries which rely on by-products from refining.
In the automotive sector, the challenge is for European OEMs to maintain (or improve) their competitiveness during the transition to a new technology. Without
this, foreign firms (from either the US or China) will move in to fill the gap and offer new mobility options to consumers. The biggest challenge lies where local industry is particularly focussed on ICE manufacturing. Here public policy will need to assist the transition, by making sure that new workers entering the workforce have skills relevant to advanced powertrain manufacture, and by offering retraining and new opportunities to the workers that stand to lose their jobs as demand for technology shifts.
In addition, there are infrastructure challenges to be met. Our analysis shows that the demands on the electricity grid need to be managed through the deployment of smart and vehicle to grid charging. The required investment in charging and refuelling infrastructure is substantial but manageable. While these challenges need to be managed, the transition to low-carbon mobility offers substantial benefits for Europe, reducing emissions, improving air quality and leading to increased output and employment.
LINK
www.camecon.com
Employment Chart
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LUBE MAGAZINE NO.147 OCTOBER 2018
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