SECTOR FOCUS: MARINE
Sea change for marine lubes on 2020 green fuel rule
Vicky Ellis Senior Editor, Manager, ICIS
The clock is ticking towards a new era in marine lubricants. “I have a countdown timer on my phone, 510 days until 1 Jan 2020,” said Ian Thurloway, the brand and marketing manager for Chevron Marine Lubricants in August.
This is when new rules from the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) take effect, and shipowners must cut sulphur emissions to 0.5% or less.
It could be an immediate splash and a long-term shift, says Dick Wolpert, Chevron Oronite’s marine product line specialist. Unlike in the automotive sector, “the fact there is [a global] external regulatory deadline, that is new to the marine game.”
A low sulphur cap under the MARPOL rule has applied to pockets of the sea known as Emission Control Areas (ECAs) in North America, the Baltic, and North seas. This new 0.5% limit is global.
The future is uncertain: large quantities of low sulphur fuel are not yet available, refiners’ offerings are not widely known, lubricant approvals from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are not yet declared, nor has every vessel operator announced their plans.
High-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) use will initially drop, says Elia Farah, analyst at petrochemicals information provider ICIS. “We predict a major shift in demand
10 LUBE MAGAZINE NO.147 OCTOBER 2018
to distillates from [HSFO] in 2020. We expect to see gasoil demand increase by 120% as a bunker fuel. It is not widely used within shipping at the moment,” says the analyst, who is working on a white paper forecasting the impact of IMO rules.
Unni Einemo, of the International Bunker Industry Association (IBIA), adds: “IBIA believes HSFO used legally will account for less than 5% of total marine fuels demand in 2020, compared to 75% or more today. From 2020, however, a single low BN [base number] cylinder oil should be able to cope with both the maximum 0.10% fuels and fuels with up to 0.50% sulphur.”
Challenges for shippers are threefold. First, increased costs – either from installing “scrubber” technology which strips high sulphur fuels of their sulphur content, or from purchasing new types of low sulphur fuel. Second, the logistical pressure of where to load new fuel and the appropriate new lubricants to match. Third, time; all this preparation comes on a short time scale for a business used to long lead times, with operators trialling options at the last minute. What is the impact on the lubricants market?
Significant change for some; for others, little or none. Within the marine environment, several applications on board a vessel need lubrication, explains Joseph Star, ExxonMobil’s global field marketing advisor for marine fuels and lubricants.
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