REGULATION
Brexit Trade Deal David Wright, UKLA Director General
Over recent months focus in the UK has turned away from the size of any divorce settlement from the European Union, to matters concerning trade and the future relationship of the country with its European neighbours.
A recent pressure group called the ‘People’s Vote’ has been launched spearheading a campaign to ensure that any negotiated trade deal is put to the electorate ahead of its finalisation by Parliament. Even the handling by Parliament of any trade deal is subject to uncertainty. In order for a trade deal to be put in place by March 2019, it has to have cleared Parliamentary approval ahead of this date.
Between the 21st December and the 8th February the House of Parliament is only in attendance ‘or sits’ for four weeks between 8th January and 8th February. The date of Brexit has already been given as the 29th March 2019 and so it is likely, according to political commentators, that the session between 8th January and the 8th February will be needed for Parliament to formally approve the terms of exit from the European Union. Leaving it until the following session which runs from 20th February until 29th March will not leave enough time if an initial vote does not give Parliamentary consent to the terms of the deal and further negotiation with the EU is required.
Traditionally detailed legislation is subject to Parliamentary scrutiny of cross-party members of
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Parliament who can consider draft legislation in detail. If any future trade deal is to be subject to the same scrutiny then it is likely that a deal will need to be laid before Parliament in the autumn, no later than September in order for any scrutiny process to be detailed and meaningful. This leaves little time to formally conclude negotiations in what is a complex and unique set of circumstances. If the ‘People’s Vote’ is successful in achieving a second referendum to the terms of any deal then the process could take longer, especially if a deal is turned down by the electorate.
Today many parties pressing Government for a second referendum are pro Remainers, or people who would not wish to see the UK leave the European Union. Pressing for a vote on any trade deal inside Parliament or amongst the wider electorate it is hoped will allow time for a rebuttal of a trade deal which could open the door for the United Kingdom to remain a member of the European Union.
With such a condensed timeline ahead, and with pressure from both inside and outside Parliament to both scrutiny and a vote on the terms of any deal, the UK Government is under pressure to deliver what is expected by the electorate following the outcome of the first referendum. ‘Brexit means Brexit’ as Prime Minister May has often said but what this means in practice and the process to be followed to deliver the outcome even at this late stage is still opaque, perhaps intentionally so.
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