A8 ELECTION 2010 Democrats likely to lose the House, polls show midterms from A1


lot longer to dig us out of this hole.” The first lady was headed for


Pennsylvania and a rally on be- half of Rep. Joe Sestak (D),whois in a tightSenate race with former House member Pat Toomey (R). Vice President Biden, mean-


while, was stumping inVermont, wherehewarnedvoters not to let Republicans regain power, say- ing the GOP would reinstitute policies that brought on the worst economic conditions since the Great Depression. Former president Bill Clinton,


who has campaigned coast to coast this fall, was in Florida. Democratic Rep. KendrickMeek is in an uphill battle in his Senate race against Republican Marco Rubio and Gov. Charlie Crist, who quit the GOP to run as an independent,andDemocrat Alex Sink, the state’s chief financial officer, is battling Republican businessman Rick Scott in a close gubernatorial contest. Clinton’s appearance came


days after it was reported that earlier he had encouraged Meek to consider leaving the race to give Crist a chance to win.


Final polling


The 2010 election will be re- membered for the thousands of negative ads aired by candidates and outside groups, many which are not required to report the names of their contributors, and for spending up to $4 billion, according to some estimates. Some candidates were still


scrambling to air new commer- cials in the final stretch. In Dela- ware, Republican Christine O’Donnell, who is trailing in her race, tried to run a 30-minute commercial but the station re- jected it because the tape did not arrive in time. It was yet another setback for the tea-party-backed candidate. With unemployment at 9.6


percent, economic growth rates still anemic, and many voters worried about deficits and the national debt, Obama and Dem- ocrats are braced for significant losses that could derail many of their plans over the next two years. Republicans looked toward


significantly enhanced numbers in Congress, even though voters still hold negative views toward the GOP, as well as big gains in gubernatorial races that could affect redistricting and the 2012 presidential election. “This election’s not about us,


it’s about them,” said Senate Mi- nority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), cautioning fellow Republi- cans against “irrational exuber- ance” on the eve of the election. “If we do have a great night, we ought to be grateful and act humble about the responsibility we’ve been given.” Republicans need 39 seats to


capture a majority in the House, though with the possible loss of several seats now in GOP hands, they may have to pick off several more Democratic-held seats to claim a majority.


PHOTOS BY MELINA MARA/THE WASHINGTON POST


Michelle Obama campaigns at Canyon SpringHigh School in LasVegas on behalf of SenateMajority LeaderHarry M. Reid, left. Final polls pointed to major


GOP gains in the House, with some surveys hinting that Repub- licans could match the 54-seat pickup of 1994, when they won back both the House and Senate. But there was wide variance on the strength of the potential Re- publican wave, as well as some notable disparities between the preelection intentions of likely voters as opposed to all registered voters. The Pew Research Center’s fi-


nal survey of the intentions of likely voters in House races showed Republicans at 48 per- cent and Democrats at 42 per- cent. “Our numbers suggest Re- publicans will comfortably take back the House,” said Andrew Kohut, the center’s director. At the far end of the scale,


Gallup’s final poll ofHouse voting intentions showed a huge gap, with Republicans at 55 percent and Democrats at 40 percent — the largest GOP margin Gallup has ever recorded. That would suggest gains of historic propor- tions. “Clearly, it shows Republi- cans are positioned to pick up significant seats,” said Frank Newport, Gallup’s editor in chief. But he stopped short of affixing a number to that prediction. The Washington Post-ABC


News poll showed Republicans at 49 percent and Democrats at 45 percent among likely voters. NBC News and theWall Street Journal showed a six-point advantage for Republicans, while CNN put the margin at 10 — all among likely voters.


Among all registered voters,


“If we do have a great night, we ought to be grateful and act humble about the


responsibility we’ve been given.”


—Mitch McConnell, Senate minority leader


the GOP’s advantages were far smaller. Gallup put thegapat four points and the Post-ABC poll showed Democrats with the ad- vantage. That caused some puzzlement


among political strategists Mon- day as they sifted through the latest information, although some attributed it to an “enthusi- asm gap” that has been evident through the year, with Republi- cansmoreenergized about voting than Democrats. The big disparity could mean


the battle to turn out voters Tues- day—and the efforts to persuade many to cast their ballots early— is even more critical than in some past elections, not just in House contests but also in Senate and gubernatorial elections, where a series of races are considered too close to call.


Democrats vote in big numbers, Sestak could prevail. Half a doz- en Democratic-held House seats are at risk in the state as well. Democrats think they have an


advantage inWashington, where Sen. Patty Murray is being chal- lenged by Republican Dino Ros- si. The state has been reliably Democratic in presidential elec- tions, andMurray’s team is hop- ing that edge will be enough to offset the Republican tide this year. For sheer entertainment val-


ue, the Senate race in Alaska is hard to top. Sen. LisaMurkowski lost the Republican primary to Joe Miller, who had the support of tea party activists as well as former governor Sarah Palin, who has warred with the Murkowski family. Rather than go quietly,


Murkowski mounted a write-in campaign.When Miller ran into trouble over past misconduct, Murkowski quickly gained ground and put herself in a position to win. But Democrats say the bitter battle between the Republicans has made it possi- ble for Scott McAdams to sur- prise everyone and take the seat.


Republicans need 10 seats to


take control of the Senate, and that appears to be an uphill battle. If Democrats keep their majority, it will be the first time in eight decades that the House changed hands without the Sen- ate following. But given how close many races are and the potential for recounts, the final shape of the newSenatemay not be known for weeks.


Gubernatorial races There are even more close


gubernatorial races, with tossup contests in Florida, Ohio,Massa- chusetts, Connecticut and Ore- gon. Overall, however, Republi- cans are likely to hit or exceed their target of emerging with 30 governor’s mansions in their col- umn. The last polls in Ohio showed


Crowd members eagerly await the first lady inNevada.


Key contests Nowhere is the turnout battle


more important than in Nevada, where Reid is struggling to win reelection against Sharron An- gle, a tea-party-backed Republi- can. The most recent public polls


show Angle with a slight lead, but Democrats say the early bal- lot numbersshowa path for Reid to win. They are banking on his get-out-the-vote operation to push him to victory, but neither side has much confidence in its prediction of success. The other Senate races that


remain close are in Colorado, Illinois,Pennsylvania andWash- ington. Of those, Colorado may be the tightest, as appointed


Who needs voters when you’ve got pundits? E


lectionresultswon’t come untilTuesdaynight at the earliest.But luckily, you


don’thave towait.This is because youhaveprognosticators. TheEconomicClub of


Washingtonhostedthree of this speciesMonday for a luncheon andpaneldiscussiontitled“The Mid-TermElectionResults aDay Early.” PunditNo. 1,Timemagazine’s


MarkHalperin, informedthe assembledlawyers and businesspeoplehowmany seats Republicanswill gaininthe House: “at least 55, andI think it couldbe asmany as 85.”While admittinghispredictive science is imperfect,Halperinadded: “If youwant anexactnumber, 75.2.” “I’mgoingwith58,” offered


punditNo. 2,ABCNews’sClaire Shipman. “It’spossible it couldbe lower


than50,” submittedpunditNo. 3, Politico’s JimVandeHei.Or,he added, “maybe 85. Idon’t think it’s inconceivable it couldbe muchbigger bothintheHouse andSenate thaneveryone’s anticipating.” So, to recap:Republicanswill


probably gain75 seats, orperhaps 58, but theirpossiblepickup range is from55 to 85—except if it’s lower than50, orhigher than 85.


It’s time againtohaul out that


hoary conventioninjournalism andpunditry: the biennial electionprediction.Participants must statewithconvictionthat whichthey cannotpossibly know. The firstMonday inNovember


DANA MILBANK Washington Sketch


is, of course, the busiest prognosticationday of themall. Inthis case, it beganwithamemo fromPolitico’sMikeAllen, author of thePlaybook. “SIREN,”hewrote. “. . .Nine


GOPSenatepickups arenow possible.” Or are they?Afewparagraphs


later,Allenreportedthe latest forecast fromhandicapper CharlieCook,who is changinghis “outlook to reflect anet gainfor Republicans of six to eight seats, downfromseventonine.” Allenforecast gains for the


GOPintheHouse “inthemid-60s or (maybemuch)higher.” Dissenting fromthat forecast


wereAllen’s bosses,VandeHei andJohnHarris,who inthe Outlook sectionofThePost on Sunday forecast a 46-seatpickup for theGOP. Cook, themost influential of


thehandicappers,deliveredhis forecast inthemanner of a weathermanwarning of bigger snowaccumulations athigh altitude: “ADemocraticnet loss of 50to 60seats,withhigher losses possible.” StuRothenberg,Pepsi to


Cook’sCoca-Cola,wentwith55 to


65,whileLarry Sabatowentwith a straight 55 andtheWeb site RealClearPolitics calledfor 67. NewYorkTimes bloggerNate Silver is goingwith53—witha “95percent confidence interval” ranging from23 seats to 81. WithRepublicans inneedof


only 39 seats to take charge of the House, the only onepredicting withany confidence that Democratswill keeptheHouse is ChrisVanHollen—but that’spart ofhis job as chairmanof the DemocraticCongressional CampaignCommittee. “The one thing theAmericanpeopledon’t like,”he toldFoxNews’sChris Wallace onSunday, “is Washingtonpundits telling them inadvancewhat they’re going to do.” VanHollen’s optimismmay be


suspect, buthe’s got apoint about the tendency forWashingtonto declare anelectionover before the voteshave beencast.This is particularly true because the basis for the forecasts—thepolls —are ofdubious value. Is the prognosticator basing the predictionontheGalluppoll, whichhas a 15-point advantage forRepublicans, suggesting “the largestRepublicanmarginin House voting inseveral generations”?Or is the prognosticator givingweight to theNewsweekpoll, showing Democratswitha three-point advantage? It’s a bit like filling out aMarch


Madness bracket, butwith unreliable seeding.At the EconomicClub luncheon, infact,


theyhandedout “Election Contest” cards to attendees; the luckywinners get iPads or four seats intheTrusteesBox at the KennedyCenter. Looking out over tables labeled


Bank ofAmerica,AkinGump, HSBCandthe like,CarlyleGroup ManagingDirectorDavid Rubenstein, themoderator, said hispanel ofpunditswould“give youthe results aday inadvance.” Shipmanforecast thatNancy


Pelosiwouldretire insixmonths. VandeHei forecast thatDefense SecretaryBobGateswouldstep downearlynext year.Halperin forecast thatwithRepublican gains intheHouse ofmore than 68 seats, thepartywouldalso seize control of the Senate. Naturally, the threepundits


pulledall suchpredictions straight out of their imaginations. Of the three,Halperinwas the mostprolific.Hepredicted: that HillaryClintonmay switchjobs withVicePresidentBiden; that write-incandidateLisa MurkowskiwillwinAlaska’s Senate racehandily; andthat CarlyFiorina couldbeat Sen. BarbaraBoxer inCalifornia as part of aGOPwave. Butwhenaskedtopredict “the


biggest surprise” of the election, VandeHei offereda real shocker: Democrats keepcontrol of the House.This,he said, “would actuallyprovewhatwe all know: That conventionalwisdomis alwayswrong.” Seems you’llhave to stayup


lateTuesdaynight after all. danamilbank@washpost.com


A guide to the election 6


Balance of power: Check out election maps regularly at


PostPolitics.com to see how the balance of power is shifting in the Senate, House and governor’s races.


Chris Cillizza’s hour-by-hour look at when polls close and what races to watch:


washingtonpost.com/fastfix


For voters who still haven’t decided how they will vote, want to find their registration status or need to figure out the location of their polling place, there’s our local Voters Guide 2010:


washingtonpost.com/localelections VSign up to receive news alerts on the elections, in your


mailbox or on your mobile device: washingtonpost.com/localelections


The midterms, state by state, on your mobile phone: wapo.st/mobilevote


Problems at the polls? E-mail us. tellus@washpost.com


Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and county prosecutor Ken Buck, a tea party favorite, have been go- ing after each other since win- ning their competitive primaries in August. In Illinois, Republican Mark


Kirk and Democrat Alexi Gian- noulias have turned off the elec- torate with a campaign in which Kirk has described his rival for Obama’s former seat as a “mob banker” and Giannoulias has branded Kirk “a liar” for embel- lishing his military record. The president campaigned inChicago on Saturday, where he drew a huge crowd, but the race is seen as too close to call. In Pennsylvania, Toomey may have a slight advantage, but if


Gov. Ted Strickland (D) running behind former House member John Kasich (R). Obama has made repeated trips to the state for Strickland, including a rally Sunday in Cleveland, though the arena where he campaigned was not filled. Strickland will need big backing from the Cleveland area to prevail. Democrats could pick up the


governor’s mansion in Califor- nia, where Jerry Brown, the state attorney general and a former two-term governor, holds a lead despite record spending by Re- publicanMeg Whitman, the for- mer chief executive of eBay. But Florida represents the


best chance for Democrats to salvage some pride. The presi- dential swing state features one of the tightest races, in which Democrat Alex Sink, the state’s chief financial officer, is battling Rick Scott, a wealthy business- man and political newcomer. balzd@washpost.com


Staff writer Paul Kane contributed to this report.


POSTPOLITICS.COM


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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2010


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