A14 Economy & Business
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TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2010
Financial overhaul likely to survive a GOP victory
EZRA KLEIN Economic & Domestic Policy Health-care repeal is unlikely, but GOP has other options T
he question is not whether Republicans want to repeal the health-care overhaul.
They do. “We offer a plan to repeal and
replace the government takeover of health care,” reads the 2010 Republican Agenda. The question is whether they
will succeed. There, the crystal ball gets
cloudier. It would be very difficult, if even possible, for them to win a repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Even in the most optimistic of election scenarios—a world in which Republicans take both theHouse and the Senate—they almost certainly wouldn’t have the votes to overwhelm a Democratic filibuster, much less overturn a presidential veto. The law, most likely, is here to stay. But that doesn’t mean Republicans are powerless. If they control even one chamber of Congress, they will have at least partial command over appropriations. And the health- care lawneeds appropriations; it details about 115 of them, some integral to implementation. Moreover, Republicans could get even more creative, refusing, for instance, to allow the Department ofHealth and Human Services to spend staff time setting up provisions of the law. As with full repeal, the GOP
would need majorities they don’t have to pass any appropriations bills that sabotage the legislation. But unlike with full repeal, where only passing a bill would affect the Affordable Care Act, Republicans can make their mark by simply refusing to pass any appropriations that would fund the law. And they have more than enough votes to keep any alternatives from passing. So what happens if Republicans won’t pass any appropriations bills that fund
BY BRADY DENNIS Republicans made little secret
of how much they loathed the far-reaching financial overhaul bill that squeaked through Con- gress this summer. Sen.Richard C. Shelby (R-Ala.),
the ranking Republican on the Senate banking committee, said the bill “promises more govern- ment,more costs, slower econom- icgrowthandfewer jobs. It threat- ens privacy rights and fails to address crucial elements of the recent crisis.” Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.)
proclaimed that it “will crush job creationatatimewhenournation needs tobe creating jobs,” adding: “We have a bill that assaults the fundamental economic liberties of everyAmerican citizen.” The landmarkDodd-Frank leg-
CAROLYN KASTER/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Republican leaders—including SenateMinority LeaderMitchMcConnell ofKentucky, center, and HouseMinority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, right—are confident that gaining control of theHouse and possibly the Senate their 2011 agenda can start with undoing key parts of the health-care law.
the health-care law, and President Obama won’t sign any appropriations bills that don’t? A government shutdown, of course. And there are reasons for both sides to fear that outcome. Republicans rememberNewt Gingrich shutting down the government in 1994 and losing the subsequent public-relations battle.His overreach in that effort broke the GOP’s momentum. Republicans are also aware
that though the health-care overhaul is unpopular, its component parts are quite popular. Simply repealing the entire act sounds better than allowing insurers to discriminate against children with preexisting conditions, or bringing back the days of lifetime limits on coverage, or telling insurers they
don’t have to cover dependents up to age 26. Republicans, in fact, already have struggled with this, implying that repeal would not actually mean the end of the bill’s popular provisions—even though they have not settled on a policy that would allow health- care reform to both exist and not exist at the same time. Democrats, however, know
that the health-care overhaul remains unpopular, that the economy is grim and that there is no guarantee that Republicans would not fare better this time. There is also the danger of “zombie legislation” -- a bill that lives on but is strategically undermined so that it appears ineffective, saysHenry Aaron, a senior fellow and health-care policy analyst at the Brookings Institution.
Politicians of both parties are
risk-averse, and the likeliest outcome is that this fight is effectively tabled—particularly if, as predicted, Democrats hold the Senate.
Republicans might mount a
mostly symbolic vote on repealing the bill, and they could make a show of holding up appropriations in exchange for smaller compromises on provisions that Democrats won’t fight to the death over. But Republicans are more
likely to try to persuade their base to take the longer viewand see this battle as one that really will be decided in 2012. Then, they think, Republicans will have a shot a the WhiteHouse— and a president whose pen will be on their side.
kleine@washpost.com
islation—namedforSen.Christo- pher J. Dodd (D-Conn.) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) — gives the government broad new au- thority to seize and wind down large, troubled financial firms. It creates anindependent consumer bureau to protect borrowers against abuses inmortgage, cred- it-card and other loans. It in- cludes a version of the “Volcker Rule,” aimed at limiting proprie- tary trading by banks. It sets up a council of federal regulators to monitor threats to the financial system,mandates oversight of the vast financial derivatives market and gives shareholders more say on how corporate executives are paid, among other things. ManyRepublicans viewthe law
as a monumental government overreach andwould like nothing more than to curtail major por- tions of it, if not repeal them altogether, should theywin big in Tuesday’smidtermelections. But the chances of that actually
happening, even if the GOP gains control of both houses of Con- gress, is slim. “I don’t think it’s all that likely,”
said Karen Shaw Petrou, manag- ing partner of the research firm Federal Financial Analytics, add- ingthatprospects for suchlegisla- tion “are at best iffy.” For starters, Democrats had a
devilish time corralling enough votes to pass the massive bill,
despite significant majorities in the House and Senate. Even if Republicans gain power, they would have amuch narrowerma- jority.Democrats almost certainly would block any meaningful ef- forts to rein inDodd-Frank provi- sions, while portraying GOP members as minions of Wall Street. In the unlikely event that Republicans force significant changes through Congress, they would face the threat of a presi- dential veto. It also remainsunclear precise-
ly what changes the GOP would pursue. It’s one thing to criticize existing legislation, quite another to offer plausible alternatives. “If you repeal it, you have to
replace it,” Petrou said, “because, with very few exceptions, doing nothing is not appropriate in the wake of the financial crisis.” That doesn’t mean Republi-
cansdon’thave some toolsat their disposal.Theycouldrefusetocon- firm President Obama’s choices for key posts created by the bill, such as the head of the new con- sumer protection bureau, or they could try to crimp some of the law’s mandates by using the con- gressional appropriations pro- cess. Rather than spinning their
wheels trying to walk back every Dodd-Frank provision they dis- like, Republicans are more likely to focus on overhauling govern- ment-backed mortgage giants FannieMae and FreddieMac. The GOP repeatedly has ham-
mered Democrats for not dealing with the troubled entities as part of the financial overhaul, while proposing little themselves in the way of long-termalternatives. What Democrats actually did
was delay those tough decisions for another day. The Obama ad- ministration and members of bothpartieshave vowedin2011 to tackle the complex task of over- hauling Fannie and Freddie, which so far has cost taxpayers nearly $150 billion. If Republicans win control of
Congress, they probablywill have an upper hand in that critical debate. But whatever the out- come, it won’t happen without another legislative wrestling match.
dennisb@washpost.com
Integrated Research Network. ThinkWellPoint.
Integrated Research Network.
Integrated Research Network
To find out more about the Integrated Research Network and other ways WellPoint is improving health care,
visit
www.ThinkWellPoint.com.
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