“If his campaign rhetoric and post-election behaviour are any guide, the new leader of the world’s second-largest business travel market does not play by normal rules”
pay for those trips. Assuming Trump does eventually deliver policy clarity once inau- gurated, then arguably his most profound influence on travel will be whether he improves or trashes the US economy. And that, taking Trump at his word, depends on whether you believe a cocktail of tax cuts, increased public spending, higher debt and protectionist tariffs are the key to success or disaster. You can also take your pick from which
economic forecast aligns most closely with your views about Trump, but the consensus seems to point towards, for the first couple of years, a sugar-rush of higher GDP, higher inflation rates and a stronger US dollar before it all goes pear-shaped later on. All those trends point short-term towards higher prices for travel to and within the US, but there are other factors at play to complicate the picture...
BORDERLINE UNCONSTITUTIONAL During his candidacy, President Trump threatened to ban all Muslims from
BUYINGBUSINESSTRAVEL.COM
entering the US, though he subsequently said during a debate with Hillary Clinton that “the Muslim ban is something that in some form has morphed into extreme vetting from certain areas of the world”. It’s hard to know what “extreme vetting” would mean in practice and the suspicion is Trump has no idea either. However, targeting particular reli-
gious or ethnic groups would be not only abhorrent but impractical and arguably unconstitutional, too. Trump may, therefore, have to act tough on border controls in less discriminatory ways that would lengthen an already weari- some process for everyone. Curbing the visa waiver programme that includes most EU states is just one example. Sorting out entry for employees to the US could become a more common issue for travel managers. Various surveys suggest some of the
world’s holidaymakers may book else- where, but business travellers will have less choice. “Leisure travel could be hit, but busi-
nesses are global organisations that have to grow,” says Bill Kerr, chief marketing officer for the travel management con- sultancy TCG Consulting. “Long-term business strategies won’t change based on immigration policies.” Assuming Kerr is right, corporate travel
will continue to the US while a downturn in inbound leisure visitors could apply downward pressure to prices. On the other hand, tax cuts could stimulate more domestic leisure travel by wealthier US citizens.
INFRASTRUCTURE BOOST Passing border control might become more onerous but other aspects of air travel could improve. How such ambitions can be financed in a time of drastic tax cuts remain unclear, but Trump has pledged to invest US$1 trillion to upgrade the US’s crumbling infrastructure. The road network is earmarked espe-
cially for improvement but so, too, are airports (Trump described New York’s
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