28 Politics


THE HERALD FRIDAY JANUARY 20 2017


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Country still divided over Brexit


Professor Roger Scully: “Public opinion, in its divided state, is likely to give the government little guidance.”


A POLL has shown that more


than half of Welsh voters still favour leaving the EU, but there are still massive divides between those who voted Leave and Remain voters. The Welsh Political Barometer


poll included a series of questions relating to Brexit, and one of the most notable features was the polarisation in responses between respondents based on their vote on June 23. This was particularly evident


when the issue of a second referendum was raised. In response to being asked 'Would you support or oppose holding a second referendum of Britain’s membership of the European Union to confirm or reverse Britain’s decision to leave the EU?' 69% of Remain voters backed the idea, compared to a mere 7% of Leave voters. Overall, 52% of respondents were opposed to the idea of a second


referendum, with Professor Roger Scully of the Wales Governance Centre noting that ‘Leave voters and others do not like the idea’. If there were to be a second


referendum, the poll asked how people would vote. Perhaps unsurprisingly the overwhelming majority’s voting intentions remained the same, although the Remain vote was slightly stronger. 92% of Remain voters would vote in the same way, compared to 89% of Leave voters. Overall, 44% would still vote to leave the EU, against 43% remain, with the remainder undecided. As Professor Scully noted, the


divide between Leave and Remain has been consistently close since the referendum. However, with the exception of the first poll in July, Leave has consistently been ahead by a small majority.


Britain’s priorities for negotiations


with the EU also exposed major differences between the Leave and Remain factions. While many have claimed that


concerns about immigration were not the main reason for voting to leave the EU, it is perhaps telling that 77% of Leave voters agreed that ‘the priority should be for Britain to have full control of their borders even if it means it is no longer able to trade freely with the EU’, compared to 17% of Remain voters. Overall, 47% of respondents believed that this was the priority. Remain voters, on the other hand,


were broadly speaking in favour of prioritising free trade with the EU. 53% agreed that ‘The priority should be for Britain to trade freely with the EU even if that means it does not have full control over its borders’, compared to a mere 8% of Leave voters, and 26% overall. It was indicated that Remain voters


were more willing to prioritise other issues, with 17% agreeing that neither


border controls or free trade were the main priorities in negotiations, against 7% of Leave voters. “Across the whole sample, the


balance of opinion (on this question wording, at least) is clearly towards Britain prioritising border control over EU trade. But that overall picture once again masks large differences between Remain and Leave voters,” Prof Scully remarked. The choice between a ‘hard’ and a


‘soft’ Brexit also appeared to polarise along perhaps predictable lines. 78% of Leave voters thought that Britain should leave the EU completely (32%) or make a limited, trade-only deal (46%). In contrast, only 14% of Remain voters agreed. However, 50% of Remain voters


believed that Britain should reverse its decision and stay in the EU, and 26% thought the country should try to make a wider deal, giving us full trade access in exchange for allowing EU citizens to live and work in Britain. Overall, 45% of respondents preferred the ‘hard’ options, against


41% who favoured the ‘soft’. While this gives some credence to First Minister Carwyn Jones’ recent claim that Welsh people would accept free movement of people to work as reasonable, it also appears to indicate that there is considerable opposition to what is perceived as uncontrolled EU migration. It is particularly notable that only 12% of Leave respondents favoured the ‘soft’ options. As Professor Scully pointed out:


“Across the sample as a whole there is no consensus whatsoever: no option wins the support of much more than a quarter of people. Once again, the basic point is reinforced – there is no public consensus about Brexit emerging. Wales – and, one imagines, much of the rest of the UK – continues to be deeply divided about the issue. “There has been much comment


in recent weeks about the UK Government apparently having difficulties in setting out a clear Brexit negotiating strategy. Public opinion, in its divided state, is likely to give the government little guidance.”


Hard Brexit will damage Wales, says Welsh MEP “Speculation about Brexit has


DEREK VAUGHAN, Labour


MEP for Wales, slammed reports that Theresa May is likely to announce plans for a ‘hard Brexit’, saying this would be a disastrous move for Wales. “A hard Brexit means pulling out


of the Single Market and Customs Union because she wants more power to restrict migration. This is despite the fact that the UK Government already has the power to limit migration to EU citizens that can support themselves,” said Mr Vaughan. “It would cause huge damage


to Wales with increased tariffs and regulatory burdens leading to job losses as major companies flee for tariff- free Single Market access in other EU member states.


already led to the pound falling in value and this will only get worse after Article 50 is triggered. The pound crashing will, in turn, lead to higher prices for consumers. “I was also alarmed by Philip


Hammond’s weekend statement in which he alluded to a new economic model with the UK becoming a tax haven where there would less public spending, lower pay and reduced workers’ rights. Although many suspected this was the real agenda of the leave campaigners, they misled voters by denying this during the referendum campaign. “It is time for all politicians from all


parties to decide if they support Brexit with these consequences.”


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