Business Marketing
dynamic, infrequent and increasingly irrelevant ‘snapshot approach’. In reality, like the scouts, marketers still largely look for a ‘star’ rather than more effective marketing mix.
In particular, the promise of being able to accurately model and predict individual consumer behaviour has not been realised by these methods. Rather, a new generation of more accurate modelling relies on the rapid and continuous aggregation and analysis of mass segment data; and an understanding of the context in which the campaigns have been run.
But against this background, a Beane-like revolution in the analysis of marketing mix effectiveness is underway -- adaptive modelling. This new approach uses a methodology
Marketing is having a Moneyball moment. It’s long been left to agencies and in-house marketers to decide their marketing mix based on their experiences and subjective views
that delivers forecasts based on the principles of natural selection. This is achieved through the application of unique evolving algorithms which mimic the way in which natural systems develop. Algorithms compete to survive and pass on their successful characteristics to create models better adapted to the task of increasing and maintaining marketing mix effectiveness.
This process of adaption enables faster, better and dramatically less expensive judgments to be made about the marketing mix. This new type of modelling is an evolution from the current approaches which are often just a review of uninformed decisions already taken. The new approach enables analysis to become an essential part of the everyday decision-making process moving forward so any marketing department can achieve much, much more, with a lot less.
Sabermetrics was a watershed moment for baseball, just as Adaptive Modelling is for marketing. Moving from art to science - by drawing on the objective metrics behind the past performances – marketers can focus their budget and time on those campaigns that are proven to deliver results.
In the wake of Billy Beane’s breakthrough the New York Mets, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, and the Toronto Blue Jays hired full-time Sabermetric analysts. In 2009, the Mets’ hiring of three key members of the team which introduced Sabermetrics to the A’s immediately won them the label ‘Moneyball Mets’. Teams which resist Moneyball are falling behind. Similarly, marketers that ignore adaptive modelling risk finding themselves knocked out of the park too.
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