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FEEDING THE FUTURE’S CHANGING DIETS 67


products—especially when Brazil and China also undergo similar diet changes, which more than doubles the effect. Because the scenarios focused on decreasing meat consumption, livestock commodities show the strongest decrease in prices. Cereal prices (especially coarse grains like maize) also decrease appreciably under both low-meat scenario variants due to the decreased demand for livestock feed that would be expected when herd sizes are reduced in response to lower livestock product prices. The effect that less demand for meat has on “releasing” grain for food use is


accompanied by a small increase in the per capita consumption of cereals under the two low-meat scenarios. There is not much overlap in food and feed uses for coarse grains like sorghum and maize outside of Sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions, where the strongest increase in per capita cereals consumption for both low-meat variants occurs. This effect would, of course, not apply to commodities like meal byproducts, which are used exclusively for animal feed and drop strongly in price under both low-meat diet scenarios (see Table 1). If the LMBC scenario


TABLE 1 World prices of key commodities under baseline and alternative diet scenarios for high-income countries (HIC), Brazil, and China (US$/mt)


beef pork


lamb/goat poultry eggs milk rice


wheat maize


other coarse grains soybean potato


sweet potato & yam cassava meal


2000 1,971 899


2,831 1,245 764 308 208 115 89 68


203 213 476 64


189 Source: IMPACT model projections.


2030 baseline


2,041 857


2,883 1,189 722 340 265 138 148 79


300 180 471 66


373


2030 HIC low meat (LM)


1,654 657


2,546 923 711 341 265 136 138 73


299 178 455 64


344


% change from baseline in 2030


−19 −23 −12 −22 −2 0 0


−2 −6 −8 0


−1 −3 −2 −8


2030 HIC + Brazil & China low meat (LMBC)


1,252 351


1,911 546 676 341 268 129 121 63


298 176 425 62


293


% change from baseline in 2030


−38 −59 −33 −53 −6 0 1


−7


−18 −20 0


−2


−10 −7


−21


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