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56 KARL PAUW AND JAMES THURLOW


BOX 1 Methodology and Conceptual Framework


Several studies highlight economic growth’s sectoral structure as a key determinant of income distribution changes, and also of the strength of the growth–poverty relationship (Ravallion and Datt 1996; Mellor 1999; Diao, Hazell, and Thurlow 2010). The link between growth and nutrition (or food security), however, is less clear (Timmer 2000). Food security includes three dimensions: availability of sufficient quantities of domestically produced or imported food; access to sufficient resources to acquire a nutritious diet; and utilization of food through adequate diet, water, sanitation, and health- care. Conceptually, the link between growth and food security resembles that between growth and poverty, at least in terms of the access dimension: economic growth raises disposable incomes and thus consumers’ ability to purchase more or better-quality food. However, a comprehensive analysis of growth and food security should also consider how growth impacts the availability and utilization dimensions. This study attempts to offer the comprehensive analysis needed to


truly understand and interpret Tanzania’s economic growth by using the Tanzanian recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which is highly disaggregated across economic sectors, commodities, and households (Pauw and Thurlow 2011). Of the 58 commodities in the model, about half are agricultural commodities or processed foods from which households derive nutrients. The 110 household groups in the model explic- itly link to economic sectors via factor markets, and hence the CGE model provides a mechanism for understanding how different growth paths (such as agriculture-led versus manufacturing-led growth) affect the level and distribution of household incomes. This is crucial for understanding how growth impacts income poverty and households’ access to food. A general equilibrium framework incorporates both commodity demand


and supply, with the latter made up of domestically produced and imported goods. This means the model is useful for considering the availability and access dimensions of food security. Prices are furthermore treated as endog- enous in such models, which is important from a consumption modeling per- spective. Consumption behavior is modeled on the basis of income and price elasticities estimated for each household group and commodity type. Both poverty and nutrition are affected by changes in income and relative prices. An analysis of nutrition impacts, however, also requires a more in-depth look at relative food price movements. If, for example, the price of calorie-rich maize increases and that of protein-rich meat declines such that the overall


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