News extra
fourth place globally, with positive growth prospects. The German market will be underpinned over the coming years through high investment in rail vehicles, in particular high-speed trains and multiple units, while investment in the often loss-making railfreight transport sector is expected to be more restrained. In Europe, the current
Euro crisis is expected to exert a negative impact on the construction of new infrastructure as a result of declining public investment, but this mainly concerns the southern European states. They, alongside other European Union (EU) member states, are struggling with high levels of national debt. The knock-on effects for the railway technology market are extremely varied from country to country, as France clearly illustrates. Despite a high level of national debt and low
China
Germany Russia USA
Japan
Britain France India
Spain Italy
0 5 10 € billion
Top 10 countries by market volume in Ébillion (annual average 2010-2012). (2010 ranking)
Bombardier CSR CNR
GE Transportaon* Transmashholding Siemens* Alstom
Hyundai Rotem CAF
Kawasaki* 0 1
(8) (9)
2 3 4 € billion
Top 10 manufacturers of new rolling stock worldwide by turnover in Ébillion in 2011 (*new vehicle revenue estimated).
18 5 6 7 8 (4) (5) (6) (10) (7) (3) (1) (2) 15 20 25 90 9% 60 6%
the three major global systems suppliers Bombardier, Alstom and Siemens together only recorded an increase of around 10%.
30 3% 0 High-speed rail Conventional rail Market volume
economic growth, the new French government plans to invest heavily in new construction projects, high- speed lines and the Grand Paris express metro scheme (IRJ June p26), as well as improving the existing rail network. It remains to be seen whether these projects will actually receive the original funding amounts, even with
Urban rail Growth rate OEM market volume and growth by product segment.
the deployment of alternative financing instruments such as PPPs.
In India procurement of rail vehicles and infrastructure is being driven by a massive demand for extra capacity, and this is securing high growth rates. In the next few years India will overtake the Japanese rail market, which is currently stagnating. While the high- speed segment has been the real driver of growth for the global rail market in the last few years, we predict conventional railways will show stronger growth in the future - particularly in new freight routes and vehicles.
Urban rail is by some distance the largest growth segment. The often catastrophic traffic situation in many large cities coupled with what are in most cases poorly developed transport networks, will lead to long-term, stable growth despite a higher dependency on public funding. Revenues for Chinese railway technology manufacturers have virtually exploded in recent years. In a comparison of SCI Verkehr’s predicted sales levels for new vehicles, the figures for CNR and CSR showed a fourfold increase in sales revenue between 2005 and 2011 while
0%
The high dependency of Chinese companies on their domestic market and on new OEM business outside China means that this record level cannot continue. Declining new procurement in the medium-term means that Chinese manufacturers will also experience over-capacity in their factories. This applies in particular to the two state companies, CNR and CSR, as well as state-owned infrastructure companies China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) and China Railway Engineering Corporation (CREC). While we expect these
groups to intensify their efforts to tap into export markets, these companies will face strong competition from local suppliers and global players, many of whom are already established in foreign markets and have built their own production sites or set up joint ventures.
Major growth market
Many manufacturers have identified the after-sales market as being the major growth market over the next few years, and this market has indeed become increasingly more accessible. Long-term maintenance contracts are a particularly attractive option as they promise stable revenue over a longer timeframe. The CIS market has shown particularly positive development in this area. We predict markets in many other countries, such as the vital Brazilian railway market, to provide a further boost in the future. In order for market players to increase their revenues, manufacturers will need to continue to target the opening-up of after-sales markets. Getting this strategy right will be key to ensuring further growth in the years to come. IRJ
Copies of the report can be ordered from
www.sci.de Visit SCI at InnoTrans in Hall 3.2, Stand 206
IRJ September 2012
Growth rate
Market volume (€ billion)
Page 1 |
Page 2 |
Page 3 |
Page 4 |
Page 5 |
Page 6 |
Page 7 |
Page 8 |
Page 9 |
Page 10 |
Page 11 |
Page 12 |
Page 13 |
Page 14 |
Page 15 |
Page 16 |
Page 17 |
Page 18 |
Page 19 |
Page 20 |
Page 21 |
Page 22 |
Page 23 |
Page 24 |
Page 25 |
Page 26 |
Page 27 |
Page 28 |
Page 29 |
Page 30 |
Page 31 |
Page 32 |
Page 33 |
Page 34 |
Page 35 |
Page 36 |
Page 37 |
Page 38 |
Page 39 |
Page 40 |
Page 41 |
Page 42 |
Page 43 |
Page 44 |
Page 45 |
Page 46 |
Page 47 |
Page 48 |
Page 49 |
Page 50 |
Page 51 |
Page 52 |
Page 53 |
Page 54 |
Page 55 |
Page 56 |
Page 57 |
Page 58 |
Page 59 |
Page 60 |
Page 61 |
Page 62 |
Page 63 |
Page 64 |
Page 65 |
Page 66 |
Page 67 |
Page 68 |
Page 69 |
Page 70 |
Page 71 |
Page 72 |
Page 73 |
Page 74 |
Page 75 |
Page 76 |
Page 77 |
Page 78 |
Page 79 |
Page 80 |
Page 81 |
Page 82 |
Page 83 |
Page 84 |
Page 85 |
Page 86 |
Page 87 |
Page 88 |
Page 89 |
Page 90 |
Page 91 |
Page 92 |
Page 93 |
Page 94 |
Page 95 |
Page 96 |
Page 97 |
Page 98 |
Page 99 |
Page 100 |
Page 101 |
Page 102 |
Page 103 |
Page 104 |
Page 105 |
Page 106 |
Page 107 |
Page 108 |
Page 109 |
Page 110 |
Page 111 |
Page 112 |
Page 113 |
Page 114 |
Page 115 |
Page 116 |
Page 117 |
Page 118 |
Page 119 |
Page 120 |
Page 121 |
Page 122 |
Page 123 |
Page 124 |
Page 125 |
Page 126