News extra
Global rail market set to grow by 17.5% by 2016
Global demand for railway technology products is under pressure in established markets, but declining volume in China is being counterbalanced by increasing investment in upcoming markets. As Maria Leenen, CEO, and Andreas Wolf, senior consultant with SCI Verkehr, explain, the long-term future for the global railway market looks assured.
technology products, which currently amounts to ƒ143 billion, half of which is generated from the after-sales segment, is set to rise annually by 3.3% to ƒ168 billion by 2016. While there will be a further increase in delivery volume by 2014, SCI Verkehr anticipates broad stagnation for new original equipment manufacturing (OEM) business over the next five years up to 2016, with growth thereafter almost exclusively generated through after-sales business. New OEM business is expected to stagnate as a result of falling demand in China and the weakened state of the European market caused by the eurozone’s budget and currency crisis. On the other hand record investment in railway technology is expected in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS - which covers most of the former Soviet Union), South America and Africa/Middle East, which could in the medium term offset the downturn in Asia. The long-term growth
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prospects of the railway technology market are not under threat. Continuing urbanisation, ambitious climate and environmental targets and a continuing rise in demand for resources along with the opening up of new raw materials deposits, plus rising global trade, all give good reason for maintaining a positive outlook. SCI Verkehr analyses the world market for railway technology in more than 20
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HE worldwide market volume for railway
North America: É19.9bn 5.0%
Western Europe: É39.7bn 3.0%
Eastern Europe: É9.4bn 3.4%
CIS: É18.1bn 3.2%
Asia: É43.4bn 1.8%
Africa/
South/Central America: É4.1bn 5.0%
Middle East: É5.1bn 10.6%
Australia/Pacific: É3.2bn 1.1%
Current market volumes and rate of growth up to 2016.
detailed studies published at regular intervals. The results of these analyses have been consolidated in the World Market for Railway Technology 2012study which summarises the most important facts and
developments for the coming five years and is being published to coincide with InnoTrans 2012. We conduct ‘bottom-up’ analyses of markets based on systematic observation of railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects which forms the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and, most importantly, our regional market studies. The project database, which
currently covers more than 3000 investment projects and 2000 vehicle and rolling stock projects, is particularly valuable. We regularly carry
out analyses in terms of their status and progress, financial budgets and their most important project partners. These analyses are then incorporated into our forecasts. For long-term forecasts, SCI Verkehr also uses general growth drivers as well as rail-market-specific cause variables such as transport and infrastructure development, in addition to installed base figures.
Chinese market still alive The Chinese rail market -
the largest worldwide - has reached its peak. Investment in the rail network is now dropping noticeably, which in 2009 was given a huge boost in the form of an economic stimulus package introduced to overcome the effects of the global economic crisis. Nevertheless, in the years beyond 2012, the total investment figure will still
remain above the 2008 level. The Chinese market is still very much alive.
High market volumes in China are predicted long-term as a result of further investment in urban rail transport and railfreight focusing on locomotives and freight wagons. Also backing up this positive long-term outlook is the development of new inter- city lines and commuter networks designed to connect large agglomerations by rail. The Russian rail market has made up considerable ground and has almost closed the gap with the United States, the world’s second-largest rail market. This is a result of an enormous backlog in demand for modern rail vehicles, infrastructure and signalling systems, following decades when investment in modern railway technology was neglected. Germany remains Europe’s largest rail market and is in
IRJ September 2012
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