Modelling

Gigatonnes 60

BAU scenario World Energy Outlook

45 2.0 1.5 30 1.0 15 PROJECTION 0.5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 8 and Figure 9: Simulation of fossil-fuel CO2 of CO2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 emissions in BAU compared with WEO values (left); Simulation of footprint/biocapacity in BAU compared with values of Global Footprint Network (right) emissions per year in 2050, doubling the current

level (see Table 3 below for transport emissions in BAU and corresponding IEA’s projections). With this level of emissions, the long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will approximate 1,000 ppm by 2100, and likely remain in the range of 855 ppm to 1,130 ppm CO2

-eq, as projected by the IPCC for scenarios A1B and

A2. In addition, over the next 40 years, the ecological footprint will reach 25 billion hectares, consuming more than twice the biocapacity of the planet (i.e. sustainable natural supply). In fact, the ratio of ecological footprint to biocapacity rises to 2.1 in 2050 from 0.81 in 1970 and 1.5 in 2009 (Figure 8).

On top of the impacts estimated in this study, according to current state of the art research, the projected BAU trends for emissions and ecological footprint are not sustainable and will trigger considerable negative consequences on society, economy and environment.

Mt/year

Transport mode Total emissions Cars

Buses

Other passenger road

Trucks

Passenger rail Freight rail Air

Water

* MoMo 6,221 2,826 424

157

1,211 29

127 721 727

2010 BAU

6,989 3,084 485

185

1,375 32

138 972 718

* MoMo 7,573 3,557 443

180

1,364 34

137

1,030 827

2020 BAU

8,387 3,945 511

220

1,513 39

155

1,229 776

* MoMo 9,308 4,494 453

209

1,603 41

143

1,451 915

A long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases of about 1,000 ppm CO2

-eq would

have an extremely low probability (<5 per cent) of restricting global warming to 2o

C. It is more likely

that the temperature increase will approximate 4o ranging between 1.7o

C and 5.5o C, C (see A1B and A2

scenarios from IPCC (2007) AR4). In such a scenario, the negative impacts will be many and varied, including, according to the IPCC, consequences for water supply, food production, human health, the availability of land and ecosystems. In particular, by 2050, hundreds of millions of people will face increasing water stress; sea-level rise will accelerate coastal storm surges, leading to land loss and erosion and intrusion of saltwater into surface and groundwater; 15 to 40 per cent of species will face extinction with 2°C of warming; crop yields, especially in Africa, will decline, probably leaving hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food. Developing

2030 BAU

10,175 5,129 518

248

1,750 44

157

1,507 822

Table 3: Transport emissions by mode in business-as-usual scenarios of GER and IEA * Source: MoMo Transport Model (IEA, 2009)

* MoMo 12,709 6,652 470

291

2,143 57

152

1,864 1,080

2050 BAU

12,991 6,923 505

314

2,157 60

168

1,995 868

PROJECTION Footprint/Biocapacity ratio 2.5

BAU scenario Global Footprint Network

517