Modelling 2011 Unit

Real GDP NDP

US$ billion/year US$ billion/year

Change in fossil fuel stocks US$ billion/year ratio to GDP

Change in fish stocks Adjusted NDP

US$ billion/year ratio to GDP

US$ billion/year Unit

Real GDP NDP

US$ billion/year US$ billion/year

Change in fossil fuel stocks US$ billion/year ratio to GDP

Change in fish stocks Adjusted NDP

US$ billion/year ratio to GDP

US$ billion/year

69,334 59,310 -1,212 -1.8% -160

-0.24% 57,992

69,334 59,310 -1,212 -1.8% -160

-0.24% 57,992

2011 BAU1 BAU2

BAU1 78,651 69,082 -1,447 -1.8% -151

-0.19% 67,533

BAU2 79,306 69,625 -1,471 -1.9% -151

-0.19% 68,052

2015 BAU

77,694 68,244 -1,413 -1.8% -149

-0.19% 66,733

2030 BAU

-2,787 -2.3% -122

96,006 -2,373 -2.1% -116

G1

78,384 68,898 -1,309 -1.7% -77

-0.10% 67,515

G1 G2

78,690 69,174 -1,221 -1.6% -36

-0.05% 67,878

G2

BAU1 91,028 79,700 -1,730 -1.9% -141

-0.16% 77,875

BAU1

BAU2 92,583 80,981 -1,788 -1.9% -141

-0.15% 79,097

BAU2

2020 BAU

88,738 77,705 -1,645 -1.9% -134

-0.15% 75,973

2050 BAU

-1,127 -0.9% 52

0.04%

-4,705 -2.9% -91

-4,972 -2.9% -91

-4,312 -2.8% -88

G1

90,915 79,766 -1,392 -1.5% -46

G2

92,244 81,007 -1,163 -1.3% 1

-0.05% <0.01% 78,305

79,771 G1 G2

116,100 119,307 110,642 117,739 122,582 164,484 172,049 151,322 174,890 199,141 100,686 103,215 -2,616 -2.3% -122

102,638 107,133 139,621 145,483 128,599 149,887 172,198 -1,692 -1.4% -9

-2,306 -1.3% 40

-0.11% 97,988

-0.10% 100,345

-0.10% 93,558

-0.01% -0.06% -0.05% -0.06% 0.02% -979

-0.5% 142

0.07% 100,939 105,930 134,855 140,450 124,231 147,509 171,129

Box 1 cont. Notes: The results here, based on calculations presented in section VI of the Technical Background Material, consist largely of supplementary calculations using T21 model results on evolution of physical natural resource stocks over time and complimenting that with data from other studies. Adjusted net domestic product (NDP) deducts the changes in the value of fossil fuel and fish from NDP*

. * See http://unstats.un.org/unsd/envaccounting/seea.asp

Growth rate 0.05

0.04 G2 scenario 0.03 0.02 Historical trend (WDI) 0.01 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Figure 13: Trends in annual GDP growth rate, historical data (WDI, 2009) and projections in BAU, BAU2 and G2 scenarios

yield being further affected by pre-harvest losses (in addition, post-harvest losses will reduce the amount of final food supply).20

Higher yields allow using a lower amount of land, 4 per cent less than BAU and 6.2 per cent less than additional BAU cases in 2050. As a result, the quantity

20. Causal loop diagrams (CLD) for each sector modelled and analysed in the GER are presented in section VII, Technical Background Material.

of calories consumed per person in the green cases will be higher than BAU and additional BAU investment scenarios, especially in the longer-term, by 4 to 7 per cent and 1 per cent to 1.4 per cent by 2030 respectively, reaching close to 3,100 Kcal/person/day. By 2050 the overall quality of nutrition is projected to rise by 9 to13 per cent relative to BAU, with 3,250 and 3,380 Kcal being consumed per person per day. In line with the agricultural production increase in the green scenarios, employment in the agriculture sector will reach 1.62

523 BAU scenario BAU2 scenario PROJECTION