Modelling

4. A green economy has the potential to create additional jobs in the medium to long run. A shift to a green economy also means a shift in employment, which, at a minimum, should not lead to a net loss of jobs. The jobs created will at least make up for the losses that would be incurred from transforming environmentally unsustainable activities. In the short- and medium-term, the net direct employment under green investment scenarios may decline due to the need to reduce excessive resource extraction in sectors such as fisheries. But between 2030 and 2050, these green investments would create employment gains to catch up with and likely exceed BAU, under which employment growth will be further constrained by resource and energy scarcity and the impact of climate change.

5. The greening of most economic sectors would reduce GHG emissions significantly. With about 1.25 per cent of global GDP invested in raising energy efficiency across sectors and expanding renewable energy, including second generation biofuels, global energy intensity would be reduced by 36 per cent by 2030 and annual volume of energy-related CO2

emissions would decline to 20

Gt in 2050 from 30.6 Gt in 2010. Including the potential carbon sequestration of green agriculture, a green investment scenario is expected to reduce the concentration of emissions to 450 ppm by 2050, a level essential for having a reasonable likelihood of limiting global warming to the threshold of 2 degrees centigrade.

6. A green economy sustains and enhances ecosystem services. Green investments in the forestry and agricultural sectors would help reverse the current declines in forestland, rejuvenating this important resource to about 4.5 billion hectares over the next 40 years. Higher yields from investing in green agriculture would reduce the amount of land used for crops and livestock in 2050 by 6 per cent compared with projected BAU trends, while producing more food. Soil quality would rise by a quarter on average in 40 years. In addition, investments to increase water supply and expand access, while improving management, would provide an additional 10 per cent of global water supply in both the short- and long-term, and also contribute to sustaining groundwater and surface water resources. In the fisheries sector, the reduction of excessive capacity would help fish stocks to recover by 2050 to 70 per cent of their total level in 1970, as compared with a projected further decline to 30 per cent of the 1970 level under BAU. These investments in “ecological infrastructure” help to restore the earth’s bio-capacity and also to enhance human well-being.

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