Towards a green economy

List of figures Figure 1: The relations between economic growth and natural resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 507 Figure 2: Conceptual overview of T21-World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 510 Figure 3: Representation of the main underlying assumptions of green and BAU investments . . . . . . . . . 512 Figure 4: Simulation of population in BAU compared with population values of WPP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515 Figure 5: Simulation of total volume of crop yield in BAU compared with values of FAOSTAT. . . . . . . . . . . 515 Figure 6: Simulation of oil demand in BAU compared with values of WEO*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516 Figure 7: Simulation of arable land and forestland in BAU compared with values of FAOSTAT . . . . . . . . . . 516 Figure 8 and Figure 9: Simulation of fossil-fuel CO2

emissions in BAU compared with WEO values;

Simulation of footprint/biocapacity in BAU compared with values of Global Footprint Network . . . . . . . 517 Figure 10: Results of the G1 scenario relative to the BAU1 case in 2015, 2030 and 2050 (per cent). . . . . . 519 Figure 11: Results of the G2 scenario in 2015, 2030 and 2050 relative to BAU2 (per cent) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 519 Figure 12: Trends in GDP growth rate (right axis) and stocks of natural resources (left axis: oil discovered reserves, fish stock and forest stock, relative to 1970 levels), in the BAU and G2 scenarios . . 520 Figure 13: Trends in annual GDP growth rate, historical data (WDI, 2009) and projections in BAU, BAU2 and G2 scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 523 Figure 14: Fossil fuel CO2

emissions in additional BAU and green scenarios relative to the BAU case. . . . 524

Figure 15: Composition of ecological footprint in 2050 in various scenarios, relative to 1970 value and indication of the projected footprint-biocapacity ratio in 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 524 Figure 16: Causal loop diagram (CLD) representing the main factors influencing crop yield in the agriculture sector of the model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525 Figure 17: Land allocation in 2050 under BAU and the G2 scenario, in billion hectares and as a share of total land . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Figure 18: Total forest stocks and flows of deforestation and reforestation in BAU, BAU2 and G2 scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526 Figure 19: Fish stock relative to 1970 level and fish catch in BAU, BAU2 and G2 scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 Figure 20: Results of the sensitivity analysis for (a) fish stock relative to 1970 level and (b) fish catch in tonnes/year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527 Figure 21: Global conventional oil production scenarios considered in the GER . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528 Figure 22: Trends in BAU and G2 scenarios (a) in total energy consumption and renewable penetration rate (right axis), (b) power generation and renewable penetration rate in power sector . . . 529 Figure 23: Composition of power supply employment in 2050 in various scenarios in power plants (in manufacturing, construction, installation and operation and management), power supply fuels, energy efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 530 Figure 24: Total employment in the energy sector, and its disaggregation into fuel and power, and energy efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 531 Figure 25: Water supply by source and water demand by sector (km3

), under BAU baseline and

G2 scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 532 Figure A1: Spheres and sectors of T21-World. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 538

500