Modelling

partially offset by the additional GDP and associated consumption. Synergies, as explained below, can be found in investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy among others, because they generate a net reduction in fossil fuel demand, which in turn pushes prices below the BAU projection and generates considerable savings (or avoided costs) over time, despite the impact of the rebound effect.

As a result of green investments, global energy demand and CO2

emissions will be mitigated considerably by

2050 relative to BAU (Figure 14). Even without explicitly modelling and analysing the positive impacts on emissions of transitioning to conservation agriculture,17 we project a concentration in the range of 500-600 ppm in the green scenarios.18

This indicates a moderate to

unlikely probability that global warming will be limited to 2o

C, as indicated in the IPCC AR4 report (IPCC 2007).

More specifically, the projections result in a 36 per cent reduction in global energy intensity by 2030 in the G2

case, with the annual volume of energy-related CO2 emissions declining to 30-20 Gt in 2050 from 30.6 Gt in 2010, also a 40 per cent and 60 per cent below BAU in 2050 for the G1 and G2 scenarios respectively, which is more significant than the short-term mitigation (reducing BAU by 3 to 6 per cent in 2015 and 7 to 15 per cent in 2020). Non-energy related emissions from fertiliser use, deforestation and harvested land will be lower than BAU by 16 to 25 per cent, 33 per cent and 1 per cent in 2015, and 45 to 68 per cent, 55 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively in 2050. It is worth noting when considering the enactment of a cap and trade mechanism with carbon prices aligned with the recent US domestic proposal (reaching US$ 77 per tonne of CO2

by 2030 and US$ 221 by 2050, in constant US dollars

at 2010 prices), that the reduction in emissions from the green economy investment would represent a savings in avoided permit costs of about US$ 1000-1,650 billion per year on average between 2012 and 2050.

Finally, under the green economy scenarios, the ecological footprint will also improve in the medium to long run after a slight increase in the short-term, with the biocapacity ratio reaching 1.5 (or 4 per cent to 6 per cent below BAU) in 2015 and then stabilising at 1.4-1.2 throughout 2050, well below 2.0 in the BAU and 2.21- 2.4 in the BAU1 and BAU2 scenarios (See Figure 15), and years of life expectancy lost due to emissions will be reduced by 3.6 per cent and 7 per cent on average in the G1 and G2 cases.

17. Due to the lack of global estimations on soil carbon absorption under conservation agriculture practices.

18. The concentration of emissions could be lowered to 450 ppm when accounting for the potential carbon sequestration of organic and conservation agriculture. Conservative estimates for the annual global sequestration potential of OA amount to 2.4–4 Gt CO2

estimates point at a potential of 6.5-11.7 or even more (see Müller and Davis (2009); Nelson et al. (2009).

Since the green investments simulated have economic impacts (e.g. GDP), as well as social (e.g. employment, poverty) and environmental impacts (e.g. energy consumption, emissions, land and water management), the context in which they are applied are particularly relevant to the analysis. Developing countries, such as sub-Saharan countries, facing extreme poverty and considerable challenges in reaching the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (World Bank 2007), are heavily dependent on agriculture and highly vulnerable to climatic changes. Improving socio-economic conditions, through higher access to water and energy, but also improved nutrition, and the efficient utilisation of natural resources are key goals of green economy strategies in these countries. Developing countries strive to improve productivity and increase their economic resilience in order to sustain strong economic growth. Here, energy and resource efficiency are key to longer-term development. Equatorial nations, often endowed with oil and other natural resources, are a good example: being a net exporter of resources these countries can profit from a reduction in domestic demand, and by preserving forest and other stocks of natural resources - possibly through payments for ecosystem services - can maintain Earth’s biodiversity stocks. Finally, developed countries can more actively contribute to technology development and become a solid example of how mature economies can become resource efficient and reduce their carbon path, while creating jobs.

Agriculture In the case of the green investment scenarios, the additional investment in the agriculture sector (US$ 118-US$ 198 billion per year on average in 2011- 2050 in G1 and G2, respectively) is allocated to more extensive use of organic fertiliser, agricultural research and development, pest control, and food processing. In these scenarios, the volume of agricultural (crop) production (excluding livestock forestry and fishery), is projected to increase by 7 to 11 per cent in 2030 and 11 to 17 per cent in 2050 compared with BAU.19

Relative

to BAU1 and BAU2, value added in the green cases will be between 3 and 5 per cent in 2030 and in the range of 5 to 9 per cent in 2050. This development is mainly due to higher yield per hectare (15 to 22 per cent higher than BAU and 6 to 10 per cent than additional BAU scenarios by 2050, with BAU1 and BAU2 having a higher yield than the green scenarios in the short- to medium-term only), driven by improved soil quality (thanks to the extensive use of organic fertilisers), R&D efforts and effective pest control. As is presented in Figure 16, natural crop yield per hectare depends on a number of primary factors, with the actual effective

-eq, while other

19. When assuming that a price premium could be applied to certified products, or those goods originating from sustainable agriculture practices, the total value of agricultural GDP in the G1 and G2 cases would be on average 28 per cent higher than BAU1 and BAU2 and 40 per cent higher than BAU. This calculation assumes, among others, that producers have access to markets that demand (or reward) sustainable practices.

521