Modelling

Energy demand in mtoe/year 20 000

15 000 19 10 000 13 5 000 0

2010 2030 2050 BAU

2010 2030 2050 G2

0 5

13 13 13

% RE in energy 27

10 15 20 25 30

Power generation in TWh/year 40 000

30 000 29 20 000 16 10 000 0 16 10

2010 2030 2050 BAU

2010 2030 2050 G2

0 24 20

% RE in power 45

20 30 40 50

Figure 22: Trends in BAU and G2 scenarios (a) in total energy consumption (left axis) and renewable penetration rate (right axis), (b) power generation (left axis) and renewable penetration rate in power sector (right axis)

used. Additional scenarios were simulated to test the impacts of variations in the labour intensity of second- generation biofuels, for which very few estimates were found (e.g. Bio-era 2009). The values considered range from 1/6 and 1/3 of the employment of first generation biofuels. Also considered is a scenario where second generation biofuel share the same labour intensity as first generation biofuels. In the first case, the range considered would result in projected biofuel employment to grow rapidly and reach between almost 3 million and 4 million in 2050, compared with 3.1 million in G2 and 2 million under BAU. On the other hand, assuming that the labour intensity of biofuels does not change with the introduction of second generation biofuels, total employment would reach 7.7 million by 2050.

% *WEO

Scenarios Coal Oil

Gas

Nuclear Hydro

Biomass and wastes Other RE Total

Reference 29 30 21 6 2

10 2

100

GER BAU 31 28 23 6 2 8 3

100 2030

*WEO 450 19 27 21 10 3

14 5

100

GER G2 25 24 23 8 3

12 5

100

Table 5: Comparison of energy mix in 2030 and 2050 in various GER and IEA scenarios Source: WEO 2010 (IEA 2010); ETP 2010 (IEA 2010)

*ETP

BLUE Map 15 19 21 17

29 100

The total employment in the energy sector is projected to slightly decrease over time in the BAU scenario, reaching 18.6 million by 2050 against 19 million in 2010, owing to increasing labour productivity in fossil fuel extraction and processing. In the green scenarios, short-term net job creation is observed (for both G1 and G2) primarily due to the higher labour intensity of renewable energy versus thermal power generation. In the longer-term instead, the G1 case shows lower employment levels than BAU (4 per cent below BAU in 2050), while the employment in the G2 case (23.3 million) will be higher than the BAU1 scenario (19.5 million), and will greatly outperform the BAU (18.6 million) by almost 26 per cent when energy efficiency jobs are considered (Figure 23).

2050

GER G2 15 21 25 12 4

16 8

100

529