Modelling

25 20 15 Thermal power 10 5 Coal production 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil production Gas production

Biofuel

RE power Energy efficiency

Figure 24: Total employment in the energy sector, and its disaggregation into fuel and power, and energy efficiency under the G2 scenario

a declining share of the emissions from 53 per cent under BAU to 38 per cent in the green scenarios. Primarily as a result of the job gains in public transport expansion, total employment in the green scenarios will increase to 124-130 million in 2050 (or 5 to 10 per cent above the baseline).

In the short-term, private cars will account for 41 per cent of passenger travel due to green investments in 2020 compared with around half under BAU, allowing the share of rail transport to grow to 11 per cent from 7 per cent in BAU. As a result, the total energy consumption of automobiles is curbed by 28 per cent relative to BAU, resulting in a 20 per cent reduction in total energy consumption and emissions from all vehicles by 2020. At the national level we find synergies in allocating investments to increase fuel efficiency, expanding and electrifying the rail network. If non-thermal power sources are adopted, this leads to reduced liquid fuel demand, higher efficiency and lower carbon intensity. At the same time, the economy and employment will benefit from infrastructure construction and reduced congestion but short-term increases in emissions are

Mtoe/year Scenario

Total transport energy consumption

in which oil in which biofuel 2020

* WEO/450 Scenario 2,710 2,483

193 G2

3,155 2,699

427

possible due to the higher demand of iron and steel, among other things.

Water In the green economy scenarios, US$ 118 - US$ 198 billion per year is invested on average between 2010 and 2050 in the water sector to expand the access to potable water and water services, to improve water-use efficiency, and to increase water supply through desalination and supply management measures. With these investments, water demand will be curbed by about 24 per cent to 19 per cent in the G1 and G2 scenarios by 2050 relative to BAU (3 per cent by 2015 and 13 to 12 per cent in 2030). This reduction is mainly a result of increased water efficiency in the agriculture sector as well as investments in the industrial and municipal sectors. Furthermore, investments to manage and increase supply and improve access to water will support the preservation of groundwater and surface water, contributing to about 10 per cent of global water demand both in the short- (2015) and longer-term

2030

*WEO/450 Scenario 3,182 2,891

245 (IEA 2009) G2

3,139 2,526

580 2050

* IEA's BLUE Scenarios 2,100-3,200

400-800

Table 6: Transport energy consumption in green scenarios of GER and IEA, in selected years Source: * WEO/450 Scenario: WEO 2010 (IEA 2010); IEA’s BLUE Scenarios: Transport energy and CO2

G2 2,163 874

531

Million persons