45 2.0 1.5 30 1.0 15 PROJECTION 0.5 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Figure 8 and Figure 9: Simulation of fossil-fuel CO2 of CO2 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 emissions in BAU compared with WEO values (left); Simulation of footprint/biocapacity in BAU compared with values of Global Footprint Network (right) emissions per year in 2050, doubling the current
level (see Table 3 below for transport emissions in BAU and corresponding IEA’s projections). With this level of emissions, the long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases will approximate 1,000 ppm by 2100, and likely remain in the range of 855 ppm to 1,130 ppm CO2
-eq, as projected by the IPCC for scenarios A1B and
A2. In addition, over the next 40 years, the ecological footprint will reach 25 billion hectares, consuming more than twice the biocapacity of the planet (i.e. sustainable natural supply). In fact, the ratio of ecological footprint to biocapacity rises to 2.1 in 2050 from 0.81 in 1970 and 1.5 in 2009 (Figure 8).
On top of the impacts estimated in this study, according to current state of the art research, the projected BAU trends for emissions and ecological footprint are not sustainable and will trigger considerable negative consequences on society, economy and environment.
Mt/year
Transport mode Total emissions Cars
Buses
Other passenger road
Trucks
Passenger rail Freight rail Air
Water
* MoMo 6,221 2,826 424
157
1,211 29
127 721 727
2010 BAU
6,989 3,084 485
185
1,375 32
138 972 718
* MoMo 7,573 3,557 443
180
1,364 34
137
1,030 827
2020 BAU
8,387 3,945 511
220
1,513 39
155
1,229 776
* MoMo 9,308 4,494 453
209
1,603 41
143
1,451 915
A long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases of about 1,000 ppm CO2
-eq would
have an extremely low probability (<5 per cent) of restricting global warming to 2o
C. It is more likely
that the temperature increase will approximate 4o ranging between 1.7o
C and 5.5o C, C (see A1B and A2
scenarios from IPCC (2007) AR4). In such a scenario, the negative impacts will be many and varied, including, according to the IPCC, consequences for water supply, food production, human health, the availability of land and ecosystems. In particular, by 2050, hundreds of millions of people will face increasing water stress; sea-level rise will accelerate coastal storm surges, leading to land loss and erosion and intrusion of saltwater into surface and groundwater; 15 to 40 per cent of species will face extinction with 2°C of warming; crop yields, especially in Africa, will decline, probably leaving hundreds of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food. Developing
2030 BAU
10,175 5,129 518
248
1,750 44
157
1,507 822
Table 3: Transport emissions by mode in business-as-usual scenarios of GER and IEA * Source: MoMo Transport Model (IEA, 2009)