Figure 17: Land allocation in 2050 under BAU and the G2 scenario, in billion hectares and as a share of total land
Forests are very important for many countries, where both their harvesting and preservation are important economic drivers. In certain cases, waste land could be converted to forests over time, without negative impacts on agriculture and settlements. Simultaneously, better control measures would reduce the rate of deforestation, limiting the rapid depletion of forestland and natural resources.
26% Arable 1.65 13% Agriculture 5.40
Pasture 3.76
29%
Fisheries The green investment in fisheries, (US$ 118-198 billion per year over the next 40 years) is allocated to three areas: 1) vessel buyback programmes to prevent over- capacity of fishing, 2) retraining and relocation of fisheries employment, and 3) fisheries management to support fish-stock regeneration. In these green scenarios, the fishery sector will also move toward sustainability through a reduction in vessel capacity and investments in the management of fish stocks.23
With the withdrawal
of vessels between 2011-2020, fishing capacity will be 26 per cent lower than BAU by 2020. This will cause the global fish catch to drop to 50 million tonnes by 2017, considerably lower than current levels – and one- fourth lower than BAU – but a necessary step to restore the fish stock, which would halt its decline and level off around 2020. Once the decline of the fish stock is curbed and investments are freed up to promote better management of the industry, the fish catch could grow well above the projected 50-63 million tonnes in 2050 in the G1 and G2 cases, with 2 to 4 per cent more catch per year on average than BAU between 2010 and 2050.
While lower fishing capacity will reduce direct employment in the short-term (by 19-20 million people in 2020 under G1 and G2 relative to 24 million under BAU and 29 million in 2011), higher stock levels and better management of the sectors are projected
23. Fish stock represents the total number of fish. Modelled as a stock variable, its value changes by accumulating fish birth and reducing by fish death per year, and is dependent on values of previous year. Similarly, forest and agricultural land stocks represent sizes of land areas for forests and agricultural production, that changes by annual conversion among types of land. Other stocks include resources of fossil fuels and water sources.
BAUBAU2G2 Forest area increase in m Ha/ year
2010 2030 2050
25 20 15 10
0 5
-5
-10 -15 -20
Forest area decrease in m Ha/ year area decrease in m Ha/ year
Figure 18: Total forest stocks (right axis), and flows of deforestation and reforestation (left axis) in BAU, BAU2 and G2 scenarios