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Towards a green economy


Millions of persons 15


5,1 10 3,3 5 5,5 0 1,8 BAU


Thermal power fuel Thermal power plant


5,3 0,8


G2


RE power plant Energy efficiency


Figure 23: Composition of power supply employment in 2050 in various scenarios in power plants (in manufacturing, construction, installation and operation and management), power supply fuels, energy efficiency


Considering short-term impacts of the green investment, the energy sector will see the expansion of renewable energy with less significant improvements compared with the longer-term: the renewable energy penetration rate will rise to 19 to 22 per cent in power supply and 14 to 17 per cent in total energy supply by 2020, from 18 per cent and 13 per cent respectively in BAU. By then, green investments will push the production of second- generation biofuels up to 133-424 billion lge, creating 1.5-1.9 million jobs (12 per cent to 40 per cent above BAU) in biofuel production. As a result, total energy employment will be 5.5 per cent higher in G2 (21 million) than the baseline (20 million), but 2 per cent lower than BAU in G1 (19 million). These figures include the 0.25-0.62 million jobs created by 2020 through energy- efficiency improvements.


Energy demand Additional green investments, totalling US$ 277- US$ 651 billion per year over the next 40 years, are allocated to improve efficiency for end-use energy demand, especially in power use (across sectors) and in fuel use in industry (see also HRS-MI 2009) and transport (transport investments are analysed in a separate section looking at the expansion of the public transport network as opposed to increased efficiency).


These energy savings efforts are projected to curb total primary energy demand by 4 to 6 per cent, 10 to 15


5,2


per cent and 26 to 34 per cent by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively compared with BAU,


reaching 14,120-


13,709 Mtoe in 2020, 15,107-14,269 Mtoe in 2030 and 14,562-13,051 Mtoe in 2050.25


Total fossil fuels demand


will decline by 6 to 12 per cent relative to BAU in 2020, and 22 to 41 per cent relative to BAU and up to 28 per cent to 48 per cent relative to BAU1 and BAU2 by 2050, driven by the expansion of the public transportation network (rail and buses) and by improvements in energy efficiency (e.g. in the industrial and buildings sector), as well as the increased use of renewable energy and waste, as mentioned above (IEA 2008).


The lower energy consumption will generate considerable savings on energy expenditure (e.g. avoided capital and fuel costs in the power sector will result in savings averaging US$ 415-US$ 760 billion per year between 2010 and 2050).


Furthermore, green investments allocated to energy efficiency are expected to create an additional 2.9- 5.1 million jobs by 2050, causing the total energy employment in G2 to reach 23.4 million in 2050, above the baseline by 26 per cent (See Figure 23 for power-sector employment and Figure 24 for a detailed breakdown of energy employment).


Transport The green investments in the transportation sector, totalling US$ 187-US$ 419 billion per year over the 40- year period, will be allocated both to improve energy efficiency across all transport modes, as mentioned above, and to support the shift from private transport to public or non-motorised (e.g. walking or cycling) transport. In 2050, private cars account for only one- third of total passenger travel - in terms of passenger- km/year - almost cutting the baseline percentage in half, resulting in a reduction in the number of cars by 34 per cent relative to BAU. Accordingly, the shares of passenger travel carried by trains and buses increase drastically to 18 per cent and 35 per cent by 2050 in the G2 scenario. The combination of this modal transition, further energy efficiency improvements and expected changes in total travel volume is expected to lead to energy savings in almost all transport modes - between 57 and 75 per cent for cars and 40 to 65 per cent overall in the green economy scenarios relative to BAU. This outweighs the slight increase in rail and bus energy consumption (Table 6). As a consequence, total CO2


emissions from transport energy use are


expected to decline to 7.8-4.6 Gt per year in 2050 in the green scenarios, compared with around 13 Gt per year in the baseline. By then, cars will account for


25. As a point of comparison, energy efficiency in OECD countries has reduced projected growth in energy consumption by 56 per cent over the 30-year period, 1973-2004 (IEA 2008).


530


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