This book includes a plain text version that is designed for high accessibility. To use this version please follow this link.
Towards a green economy


Natural resources, relative to 1970 ratio 1.4


BAU


0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2


0 1990 Relative fish stock 2010 2030 Relative forest area 2050 Relative oil reserves


Figure 12: Trends in GDP growth rate (right axis) and stocks of natural resources (left axis: oil discovered reserves, fish stock and forest stock, relative to 1970 levels), in the BAU and G2 scenarios


Stocks are better managed and saved for future generations in G2, while supporting GDP growth already in the medium- and longer-term.


Box 1). Economic development in a green economy pushes total employment up to 4.8-4.9 billion in the G1 and G2 scenarios (3 per cent to 5 per cent above BAU) (see Table 4). Depending on the investment simulated, and its timing, the total net direct employment in green sectors may decline in the short-term (primarily due to a decline in the fishery and forestry sector employment15


), to then converge or rise above


BAU employment in the medium to long run. The employment gain is projected to range from 134 million to 238 million for the G1 and G2 scenarios, depending on the projected growth of sectors that depend on natural resources.16


In the additional BAU


scenarios, employment is expected to range between 97 million and 176 million higher than BAU in 2050, which assumes, perhaps optimistically, that the trend of depletion of natural stocks does not inhibit production and employment growth. On the other hand, when accounting for the indirect employment effect across the economy as well (jobs created or lost in sectors depending on the ones analysed in more details in this study, e.g. fish distribution), we observe a growth in the range of 149 million to 251 million jobs for green


15. Employment in the fisheries sector, when adopting the second approach proposed in the Fishery Chapter (i.e. the reduction of fishing capacity will affect primarily large vessels and industrial production), will be reduced by only 1-1.2 m people in the short-term – as opposed to a loss of about 10 m direct jobs. In this case, employment in the fishery sector in the longer-term will be largely above the BAU cases.


16. As noted above, the T21-World model does not assume full employment. In addition to the further details on employment per sector are presented below, an additional analysis of employment impacts based on contributions by the ILO can be found at www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_emp/@emp_ent/documents/ publication/wcms_152065.pdf.


520


scenarios and 126 million to 223 million for BAU1 and BAU2 scenarios respectively by 2050. The results highlight the need to confront transition costs


of


greening, particularly with regard to retraining and repositioning labour for a lower carbon future.


More specifically on short-term impacts, world GDP will be slightly higher (less than 1 per cent in 2015 and 2020) in the additional BAU scenarios, relative to green cases. In 2020, total GDP in both scenarios will reach about US$ 91-92 trillion, or 2.5 per cent to 4 per cent above BAU. In accordance, total employment will be 8-21 million (or 0.2 per cent to 0.6 per cent) lower in a green economy than in BAU1 and BAU2 cases, respectively by 2020, while it will be 2 to 3 per cent higher in G1 and G2 when only net direct employment in green sectors is considered.


Pressure on natural resources increases as GDP grows, and tends to slow the rate of GDP growth in both BAU1 and BAU2.


Lower soil quality, higher water


stress and fossil fuel prices all impact GDP negatively, in turn impacting indicators such as the HDI. Natural resources have varied impacts on the ecological footprint, which pushes resource use to 2.2 times what the planet can sustainably generate by 2050 in the BAU2 case, from 1.5 times in 2010 and 1.7 times in 2020. In the G1 and G2 scenarios, while investments support the transition to a lower carbon and more resource efficient economy, they generate higher GDP, as well as greater energy and water demand than would otherwise have been the case. As a consequence, the impact of green investments on resource conservation will be


1990 2010 2030 2050


0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2


Annual GDP growth rate, % 1.4 G2 SCENARIO


3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0


Page 1  |  Page 2  |  Page 3  |  Page 4  |  Page 5  |  Page 6  |  Page 7  |  Page 8  |  Page 9  |  Page 10  |  Page 11  |  Page 12  |  Page 13  |  Page 14  |  Page 15  |  Page 16  |  Page 17  |  Page 18  |  Page 19  |  Page 20  |  Page 21  |  Page 22  |  Page 23  |  Page 24  |  Page 25  |  Page 26  |  Page 27  |  Page 28  |  Page 29  |  Page 30  |  Page 31  |  Page 32  |  Page 33  |  Page 34  |  Page 35  |  Page 36  |  Page 37  |  Page 38  |  Page 39  |  Page 40  |  Page 41  |  Page 42  |  Page 43  |  Page 44  |  Page 45  |  Page 46  |  Page 47