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The Virgin Group has placed a signifi cant A320neo order. From left: Virgin America’s David Cush, Airbus’ John Leahy, Virgin Group’s Sir Richard Branson and Airbus’ Tom Enders. Image courtesy of Airbus/H Goussé.


A320neo


brands such as Republic and Lufthansa, ACA’s Hamlin observes.


The C919, which is designed to accommodate 169–190 passengers, is scheduled for market entry in 2016. In terms of size and range, it competes squarely with the larger versions of the A320 and 737 families, IBA Group’s Ahmed remarks.


So far the C919 has garnered 100 orders from four Chinese airlines, including the country’s top three carriers, and from GE Commercial Aviation Services, whose parent is providing engines for the aircraft. Still, there are doubts about the fl edgling Chinese plane maker and its debut product. “I see the C919 more as a proof of concept that they can design and manufacture a plane in that class. The second step will be to develop a plane that can compete,” comments Hamlin. Ahmed and Erickson view the aircraft as a niche product that will attract orders from operators looking for attractive deals. “There is no game changer out there,” remarks Erickson, an assessment that extends to the A320neo. “The neo is not changing the landscape. It’s a gradual improvement,” he adds.


It is rapidly gaining traction in the market, though, with slightly over


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300 orders and commitments by mid March. A whopping order for 150 alone came from IndiGo, while ILFC signed up for 100 and Virgin America for 30. In mid March Lufthansa weighed in with an order for 25 A320neo and fi ve A321neo aircraft. Traditional Boeing customers are also expressing interest – in the A320neo as well as in Bombardier’s C–series. Southwest and Delta, which is looking to place an order for 200 planes, have recently commented favourably on both types, adding to the pressure on Boeing to come to a decision.


Oil prices drive need for effi ciency Jitters about high oil prices could well spur airlines to move ahead with their fl eet renewal decisions in favour of more fuel-effi cient planes, while the reduced emissions have been welcomed by the likes of Virgin America. Lessors and fi nanciers, on the other hand, are less concerned about green credentials than residual aircraft values, Ahmed remarks. Prior to Airbus’ decision, there were some misgivings in that camp that the values of their planes could be hit, he notes.


Pardoe sees no problem there, arguing that it will be years before the neo fl eet will have an impact on residual aircraft values. When Boeing switched to the 737NG, this took several years to play out, he says. The neo should have less of an impact, as the B737 had issues in terms of performance and range, which the NG addressed, he thinks.


AirAsia responded to the launch of the A320neo by switching its order schedule. It deferred delivery of 10 A320s until 2015. “A key commercial reason for the deferral of the 2012 aircraft is to afford the company some fl exibility to switch from its current order of the classic A320 to a new generation A320 aircraft which is more fuel effi cient when such aircraft come into production in the near future,” the airline declared in a statement.


Pardoe is loath to predict the future split between orders for the A320neo and the classic version. “A lot depends on the price of fuel,” he says. However, overall Airbus is quite bullish on the A320neo. Over the next 15 years the manufacturer has identifi ed a market potential of 4,000 aircraft.


RN


www.routes-news.com


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