Images courtesy of Airbus.
A320neo
re-designed B737, the B737NG+, to about 2019 or 2020. Fitting the B737 with new engines would enable Boeing to have an aircraft ready by 2016. The company estimates that a re-engined B737 would offer fuel savings of about 10%, while a new design would double the fuel savings.
He calls the A320neo “the right product at the right time”, a reference to the debate about whether to go for new engines or embrace a fundamentally new design altogether. For its part, Airbus management reckons that the additional savings associated with a new design, while attractive, are not worth the additional cost. By its own estimate, this would be about 10 times as expensive as the new engine option. Airbus puts the development cost for the A320neo at “slightly above €1 billion”.
Surprise move?
For all its merits, the decision to proceed took some observers by surprise. Calgary-based aviation analyst, Rick Erickson, points out that between them Airbus and Boeing have well over 6,000 orders for their current narrowbody models in the pipeline – a “major disincentive to inventing a new mousetrap”.
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Resources are another major factor. Airbus has been stretched with its development of the A350 and the issues with the A380, plus the 400M, while Boeing is over three years behind schedule with the B787 and well over one year in arrears with the B747-8, remarks George Hamlin, principal of Washington-based aviation consultants ACA Associates. The contract to develop a new tanker for the US Air Force will also eat up resources.
Airbus had been weighing up its options for about 18 months, and most of that decision-making process was spent on the assessment of the necessary resources, Pardoe says.
Boeing’s response
Boeing has yet to declare itself on the narrowbody front, but the US maker has indicated repeatedly that it is leaning towards a new design. By its own estimates, that would push the entry for a
Boeing has also indicated that it is looking at the possibility of a twin-aisle design. Pardoe has misgivings about this direction, recalling earlier attempts that failed to bear fruit. “Twin-aisle is not something that has our customers pounding on the door; it’s something that looks like a luxury,” he comments, adding “we already offer a wide aisle to speed up boarding and deplaning times”. Observers reckon that Boeing will make a move by the summer. According to Morgan Stanley, Airbus’ commitment to proceed with the A320neo is putting the pressure on its US rival to come to a decision on its narrowbody contender. Senior Boeing executives stated in February that they aim to have a decision by mid year.
Other manufacturers
Arguably there is additional pressure from two other contenders on the horizon – Comac’s C919 and Bombardier’s C–series. The latter has found favour with Republic Airways Holdings, parent of Frontier Airlines, and several regional carriers. It is the launch customer for the larger CS300, a 138-seat plane that is due to enter service in the second quarter of 2015. The smaller CS100 is scheduled to come on stream one year earlier. The C series competes at the smaller end of the narrowbody spectrum covered by Boeing and Airbus, notably against the A319 and the 737-700. To date, Bombardier has 90 fi rm orders for its C–series and options for another 90. Its customer list includes strong
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