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26 HORIZONS


was stalled by headwinds in the fourth quarter (Q4) and was likely to be buffeted backwards in this fi rst quarter (Q1). Richard Lowe, head of Barclays Retail


RETAIL MUST FIGHT TO STAY HEALTHY F


ollowing its fi rst sitting of 2011, KPMG/ Synovate Retail Think Tank (RTT) members concluded that the industry


& Wholesale Sectors, said: “The pressures on consumers began to mount towards the end of the year; with appalling weather making Christmas shopping conditions diffi cult, coupled with rising fuel costs and job uncertainty. The spur of rising VAT in January did little to prod shoppers into spending, even on big-ticket items. At least the state of retail health did not slip backwards in Q4 but it did stop improving.” Nick Bubb, senior Retail Analyst at the


stockbroker Arden Partners, added: “Q4 was indeed worse than expected in non-food and even somewhat depressed in food. However, while the mass market was under pressure, some premium stores such as John Lewis


retailtechnology RETAIL TECHNOLOGY FOR THE MULTICHANNEL AGE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2011


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RETAIL TECHNOLOGY JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2011


and Harrods did well. Despite the seasonal weather problems, the setbacks in the quarter were not just a weather-created blip, but also a harbinger of a tough start to 2011. It’s inevitable; therefore, that retail demand will suffer.” Dr Tim Denison, director of knowledge management at Synovate, noted that Q4 costs might have had a damaging effect on strong cost control. “The pressures faced included rising fuel, oil, petrol and diesel costs and rising gas and other utilities prices,” he said. “However, the two largest areas of costs – rents and people – are not negatively


impacting overall health. When sales fall short, as they did for many before Christmas, high costs hurt more. The question is: how much more can retailers take out of their cost base without signifi cantly impacting on product and service quality and the fabric of their stores? We consider retailers will continue their efforts to fi nd more savings and to keep a tight rein on costs in the short term.” Looking forward, Neil Saunders, Verdict Research consulting director, said: “Given the challenging backdrop…the big question mark is whether this is a blip or the start of a sustained downturn in the state of health.”


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