COMMENT
By Paul Withrington
T
he asteroid that killed the dinosaurs killed nearly everything else.
I have heard that dividing the deaths by the years since then shows that asteroids are among the highest causes of life termination. Nevertheless, day to day we do not fear asteroids greatly.
It is much the same with the railways, at least as far as the passengers are concerned. Generally very few die as a result of a train crash. However, when there is one there can be a great heap of the dead.
The record shows that between the years 1915 and 2004, 1370
people died in train accidents where 5 or more people were killed. The worst year was in 1915 when 227, mostly servicemen, died. If there were then 30bn passenger-km the deaths to passengers, per bn passenger-km, was circa 7.5.
When I was a 10 year old I heard you could get a very flat old penny by placing one on a railway line, so I did. The front bogey of the dashing steam engine crashed into it and leapt into the air, thankfully falling back onto the tracks, leaving the engine driver and fireman glaring back at me.
One day a schoolboy may glue a £2 coin to a high speed track with
18 | rail technology magazine Dec/Jan 11
chewing gum, thereby causing the deaths of 1,000 passengers.
Why do I say this? Well, the problem with the statistics is that, at least as far as the passengers are concerned, the numbers killed in any year tend to be small but the variability is huge - as with deaths from asteroids. Consequently, even a ten year average is unstable. Take away Ladbroke Grove, Potters Bar and Great Heck and the deaths per year plummets from five to one. That makes it difficult to say anything definitive about death rates to rail passengers.
Nevertheless the railway lobby told the Transport Committee of the House of Commons at the
inquiry into the Future of Rail that more people die on the roads than rail passengers in a year.
There are three problems with that presentation.
Firstly, as above, variability and small numbers make nonsense of any statement.
Secondly, the statistic ignores usage, and there are 17 times as many passenger-miles by road as there are by rail. Consequently there is an immediate
exaggeration in favour or rail of 1,600%.
Thirdly, the comparison is between a very small proportion of those who die on a largely
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