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a drop of 38,000 jobs or 12pc. There are also 164,000 employed in transport, storage
and communication, which are closely connected with the retail trade. This number grew from 60,000 in 1994 to a peak of 168,000 in 2009, an increase of more than 100,000 also. It has fallen back slightly to its current level of 164,000 in what is actually a very modest reduction. Adding these two sectors together, total employment in
retail and distribution is currently 433,000, which is almost as much as the entire public sector (493,000 jobs this year). It is also 60pcmore than the 272,053 jobs in the manufacturing and internationally traded services sector which tends to grab all the media headlines.
Growth in shopping space Employment in retailing and distribution has doubled since 1994, in line with the enormous growth in the amount of retail shopping space that came on streamover the last decade, stimulated by increasing consumer spending. The stock of shopping space has increased more than six-fold over the past 10 years and has almost quadrupled over the past five years. According to figures compiled by estate agents CB Richard Ellis, there are 3.3 million sq m of retail floor space in shopping centres and retail parks in Ireland currently. This compares with less than 500,000 sq m at the end of 1999 and, just five years ago, there were only 850,000 sq m of shopping space. It could be argued that this increase in space was exces-
sive, driven more by property values than by a need for extra capacity.However, it has to be said that employment in retailing and distribution has held up better thanmight be expected since the recession began. The number of jobs in wholesaling and retailing has reduced by 38,000 from the peak to the middle of this year, a reduction of 13pc. Compare this to the decline of 53pc in the number of con- struction workers over the same period, from a peak of 270,000 to the current level of 125,000.
Retail spending stabilising A fear might be that the retail sector has not fallen fully yet but, in fact, the evidence suggests the contrary. Retail spending is gradually stabilising this year, with modest growth in several sectors, and it definitely seems as if 2009 was the bottom of the curve. For the year to date, volume sales are down by 1.8pc (compared to -6.8pc last year), and value sales are down by 4.9pc (compared to -11.1pc last year). In particular, consumer durables are doing quite well – sales volume in department stores up 8.5pc in September year-on-year; clothing and footwear up 3.7pc; and electrical goods up 5.5pc. These categories tend to be income elastic and suffered particularly badly last year. This slight improvement is causing a small lift in
employment. The number of salespeople on the Live Register was 45,250 in October, down by 2,338 from September. This group was made up of 16,031 men and 26,881 women, a split that is typical of the retail sector. Another positive sign is that average footfall on Dublin’s
high streets remains healthy. Interestingly, while con- sumer spending was collapsing in 2009, footfall remained high in Dublin’s main shopping districts. Footfall rose by 1.3pc in Q2 2010 compared to the previous quarter, paral- leling the rise in consumer confidence that was occurring at this time. This may not have translated into immediate spending but it does suggest an underlying interest in shopping which should convert into revenue when people are more secure about their jobs and incomes.
International influx Furthermore, while there have been several high-profile closures by well-known retailers, the units they are vacat- ing are being taken up by new retailers entering the mar- ket for the first time and by some of the existing chains expanding their operations. This has been stimulated by the more favourable terms and conditions provided by falling rents and other costs. Vacancy in the city’s primary high streets remains low,
despite retailer difficulties, and because other occupiers are emerging for vacated units. Ground-floor vacancy on the prime high streets was approximately 5pc at the end of Q2 2010, according to CB Richard Ellis. This compares with an average vacancy level of 22pc in the officemarket. Recent research carried out by CB Richard Ellis indi-
cates that 27pc of international retailers have a presence in the Irish market. Out of 150 international cities, Dublin is ranked 55th in terms of international retailer presence. The fact that the highest ranking country in the survey – the UK – accommodates 58pc of international retailers indicates that there is significant capacity in Ireland for international brand expansion.
New retailers coming to Dublin Although demand for retail accommodation remains muted, some retailers aremaking headlines with plans for new store openings and for the expansion of existing stores. Examples are as follows: The world’s largest toy retailer, Toys ‘R’ Us, has just opened its first ‘pop-up’ store in Dublin. The outlet at WestEnd Shopping Park in Blanchardstown, Dublin 15 is the first of six temporary stores planned for the Dublin area over the coming months. Longer term, Toys ‘R’ Us plans to opens two large stores of around 3,716 sqm(40,000 sq ft) each in the north and south of the city.
Entertainment giantDisney is planning to open a store before the end of the year on Dublin’s Grafton Street. The company is to take over the Laura Ashley outlet for which it is paying €300,000 key money. The arrival of Disney is certain to prove a major boost for the street, attracting thousands of children and their par- ents, at a time when the street has been suffering from a downturn in spending despite having the fourthmost expensive rents in Europe.
US fashion giant Forever 21 opened its first European store at Jervis Shopping Centre this autumn. It is to
Winter 2010 Irish Director 57
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