D6 WEEK7TELEVISIONGAMES
6Smarter Stats is a blog written by Doug Farrar of Football Outsiders. For complete analysis of all of the week’s games go to
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EZ RE NFL WEEK 7
KLMNO 6
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2010
THE LEAGUE: The Post’s blog is your place for all things NFL during the season.
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Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens
1 p.m.,WUSA-9,WJZ-13, Ravens by 13
The Ravens are seeking their sixth straight win at home. They will have back S Ed Reed, who spent the first six weeks on the physically-unable-to- perform list while recovering from offseason hip surgery. BaltimoreWRAnquan Boldin, above, needs 54 yards receiving to reach 8,000 for his career.
SMARTER STATS: Do the Bills have any chance in this game? Ray Rice is starting to bust out after a slow start, and the Bills rank dead last in run defense by Football Outsiders measure. Joe Flacco has found a rhythm with newreceiver Boldin, and the Bills rank dead last in pass defense, not to mention 29th in defense againstNo. 1 receivers.
USERS PICKING THE RAVENS 99% GAMESNOTONTELEVISION
Cincinnati at Atlanta 1 p.m, Falcons by 31/2
USERS PICKING THE PATRIOTS 80% MATCHUP
BengalsWRTerrell Owens needs one TD to become the fifth player in NFL history with 150 TDs. RB Cedric Benson is coming off a season- high 144 yards rushing against Tampa Bay. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 15-1 as starter in home games.WRRoddyWhite ranks third in the league with 43 catches.
Philadelphia at Tennessee 1 p.m., Titans by 3
Eagles RB LeSean McCoy is one of two NFL players with at least 400 yards rushing (429) and 200 yards receiving (239). TitansWRKenny Britt has four straight games with a TD catch. Tennessee leads the NFL with 24 sacks and is tied for second in the NFL with 10 interceptions.
Jacksonville at Kansas City 1 p.m., Chiefs by 91/2
Jaguars starting QB David Garrard suffered a concussion and backup Trent Edwards injured his right thumb Monday night against the Titans. OnWednesday, Patrick Ramsey and Todd Bouman were signed off the street and Coach Jack Del Rio said any of the four could wind up under center.
Pittsburgh at Miami 1 p.m., Steelers by 3
The QBs were Dan Marino and Kordell Stewart the last time the Dolphins beat Pittsburgh, on Sept. 20, 1998. The Steelers have since defeated Miami four times. The Steelers have allowed 60 points, by far the fewest in the NFL. Miami’s Brandon Marshall is on pace for 118 catches, which would be his fourth consecutive 100-reception season.
Cleveland at NewOrleans 1 p.m., Saints by 13
Browns RB Peyton Hillis has four TDs rushing, one TD receiving, and needs one more to match his career high of six TDs in 2008. TE BenjaminWatson has had five-plus receptions in four straight games. SaintsWRRobert Meachem had a 42-yard TD last week, giving him TD catches of 35 yards or more in two straight games.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay 1 p.m., Buccaneers by 3
The Rams defense had seven sacks last week against the Chargers. That’s three more than the league-low four Tampa Bay has through five games. With three wins, the Bucs have matched their victory total from last season. But they were outscored 69-19 in their two losses—both at home—to Pittsburgh and New Orleans.
San Francisco at Carolina 1 p.m., 49ers by 3
The 49ers have an NFL-worst minus-8 turnover margin; the Panthers have a league-high 16 turnovers. After the game, the 49ers fly directly to London, where they’ll face Denver on Oct. 31. Matt Moore is back at QB for the Panthers, who average a league-low 10.4 points. Carolina has failed to reach double digits in all three home games (7, 7, 6).
Arizona at Seattle 4 p.m., WBFF-45, Seahawks by 61/2
Arizona’s Max Hall was the first undrafted rookie QB to start a game in Week 6 or earlier since Seattle’s Jim Zorn in 1976. Hall started in Week 5 against New Orleans. In its win over Chicago last week, Seattle got two rushing TDs from its running backs, the first by Seahawks backs sinceWeek 12 of last season.
Oakland at Denver 4:15 p.m., Broncos by 71/2
The Raiders may wait until Sunday to unveil their QB plans.With starter Bruce Gradkowski (shoulder) limited, backups Jason Campbell and Kyle Boller are sharing reps. BroncosWRBrandon Lloyd leads the league in yards receiving (663) and receptions of more than 25 yards (10). Rookie QB Tim Tebow scored his first career TD against the Jets.
AFC EAST
W L T PCT. PF PA
N.Y. Jets ............. 5 1 0 .833 159 101 New England ....... 4 1 0 .800 154 116 Miami .................. 3 2 0 .600 89 112 Buffalo ................ 0 5 0 .000 87 161
SOUTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Houston .............. 4 2 0 .667 153 167 Indianapolis ........ 4 2 0 .667 163 125 Tennessee ........... 4 2 0 .667 162 98 Jacksonville ........ 3 3 0 .500 110 167
NORTH W L T PCT. PF PA
Pittsburgh ........... 4 1 0 .800 114 60 Baltimore ............ 4 2 0 .667 112 95 Cincinnati ............ 2 3 0 .400 100 102 Cleveland ............ 1 5 0 .167 88 125
WEST W L T PCT. PF PA
Kansas City ......... 3 2 0 .600 108 92 Oakland ............... 2 4 0 .333 120 151 Denver ................ 2 4 0 .333 124 140 San Diego ............ 2 4 0 .333 157 126
NFC EAST
New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers
4:15 pm.,WUSA-9,WJZ-13, Chargers by 3
The Chargers are off to their worst start inNorv Turner’s four seasons as coach, and worst start since going 1-5 in 2003. They last beat the Patriots whenMatt Cassel replaced an injured Tom Brady in 2008.NewEngland’s Bill Belichick, above, is 167-98 as a coach, 130-53 with the Patriots.NewEngland WRWesWelker began his NFL career with Chargers as an undrafted rookie.
SMARTER STATS: Through six games, Chargers QB Philip Rivers leads the league in delay of game calls with six. In 2009, Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer led the league with nine the entire season. All of Rivers’s delay calls came in weeks 1 and 3, when reserve OT Brandyn Dombrowski was playing in place of holdoutMarcusMcNeill.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
8:20 p.m.,WRC-4,WBAL-11, Packers by 3
The Packers face former QB Brett Favre for the third time since he joined the Vikings last year. Favre beat the Packers twice last season, and Green Bay’s defense failed to get a sack in either game. The Vikings haven’t won on the road since beating the Packers at Lambeau Field lastNov. 1. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, above, has completed 68 percent of his passes for 1,008 yards with six TDs vs. one INT in his career against Vikings.
SMARTER STATS: The interesting thing about the Vikings’ defense this year is that the formerly scary front four isn’t getting after the quarterback too much at all. After leading the NFL in sacks in 2009, the Vikings have just six this season.
USERS PICKING THE PACKERS 54% SMARTER STATS
Cincy’s cornerback combo of Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph has helped the Bengals put up the second-best defense against No. 1 receivers, by Smarter Stats metric. Falcons QB Matt Ryan may have to look for other receivers thanWhite. He’s not used to that:White is the NFL’s most-targeted receiver, with 69 passes thrown his way.
The Eagles will miss DeSean Jackson; No. 1 receivers are one of Tennessee’s few defensive liabilities. The Titans rank 28th in defense against No. 1 receivers and eighth against No. 2 receivers. They’re the best in the NFL against receivers who aren’t tight ends or running backs.
They don’t call Jaguars backup Edwards “Captain Checkdown” for nothing. In 2010, Edwards has thrown 12 balls at or behind the line of scrimmage, 12 from 1-10 yards, just four from 11-20 yards and one 20 yards or more. Interestingly, his longest pass (31 yards) was for a touchdown.
You can generally expect Dolphins QB Chad Henne to air it out in the friendly confines of Sun Life Stadium. He’s averaging 8.15 yards per attempt at home, and 5.99 on the road. However, that go-for-broke approach comes at a price. Henne has thrown four of his five picks at home.
SaintsWRLance Moore’s yards-after-catch totals are unusual for his position, and they speak to the Saints’ “new offense” in which there are fewer downfield routes. Moore averages 6.82 air yards per catch (yards between quarterback and initial catch), but an amazing 9.29 after he gets the ball.
The Rams already have 15 pass plays of 20 yards or more this season. Last year’s pathetic offense had just 32 all season. But the interesting thing about QB Sam Bradford, deservedly praised for his deep accuracy, is that more of his passing yards have come after the catch this year—5.0 yards per completion in the air, and 5.2 after the catch.
Through six weeks of the 2010 season, San Francisco QB Alex Smith has six intentional grounding calls. No other quarterback has more than one grounding penalty this season, and in 2009, Jason Campbell led the league with just three grounding calls.
The underrated aspect of Seattle’s success has been special teams. The Seahawks put their opponents in the biggest hole on every drive (average opponent start: the 20.6-yard line), and achieve about the best starts for their offense (average drive start: the 33.7-yard line). The Cardinals’ opponents start their average drive at their own 27.1-yard line.
The Raiders are in trouble against the resurgent Lloyd. Oakland is by far the worst team in the league when it comes to defending No. 1 receivers, and Lloyd is 61 yards ahead of the next-most productive receiver (ReggieWayne has 602).
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Monday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN, Cowboys by 3
Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw, above, leads the NFC with 582 yards rushing (second in the NFL to Houston’s Arian Foster). DE OsiUmenyiora is second in the NFL with eight sacks and has forced seven fumbles, a career high. Dallas QB Tony Romo has thrown TD passes in 17 consecutive games, matching a Cowboys record he set three years ago.
SMARTER STATS: Our advice to the Cowboys against this defense?Use the shotgun (no, not literally). Dallas does much better when Tony Romo is out from under center and can actually see what is going on before his protection-impaired line gives up sacks, hits and hurries.
USERS PICKING THE GIANTS 55% USER PICKS
87% picked the Falcons
64% picked the Titans
90% picked the Chiefs
80% picked the Steelers
99% picked the Saints
51% picked the Buccaneers
72% picked the 49ers
81% picked the Seahawks
90% picked the Broncos
W L T PCT. PF PA
N.Y. Giants .......... 4 2 0 .667 134 118 Philadelphia ........ 4 2 0 .667 153 120 Washington ........ 3 3 0 .500 113 119 Dallas .................. 1 4 0 .200 102 111
SOUTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Atlanta ................ 4 2 0 .667 130 101 New Orleans ....... 4 2 0 .667 130 108 Tampa Bay .......... 3 2 0 .600 80 111 Carolina ............... 0 5 0 .000 52 110
NORTH
W L T PCT. PF PA
Chicago ............... 4 2 0 .667 112 97 Green Bay ........... 3 3 0 .500 139 112 Minnesota .......... 2 3 0 .400 87 88 Detroit ................ 1 5 0 .167 146 140
WEST
W L T PCT. PF PA
Arizona ............... 3 2 0 .600 88 138 Seattle ................ 3 2 0 .600 98 97 St. Louis .............. 3 3 0 .500 103 113 San Francisco ...... 1 5 0 .167 93 139
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